In the News: Daniel McDowell

“De-dollarization is sort of a hedging exercise. It's preparing for that potential instance of sanctions in the future or adapting to the current sanctions that you're facing but it is real, it's happening and it does have important implications for the U.S. and for the world,” says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science.

"Nabiullina has been very effective at stabilizing the Russian economy, despite the enormous economic pressure from sanctions," says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science.

"Yes, de-dollarization is real, and it is happening. No, this does not mean that the dollar’s days are numbered," says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science.

In his essay, the Maxwell School political scientist contends that Chinese bank expansion abroad may weaken Washington’s ability to leverage financial sanctions.

Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science, authored "New era of financial sanctions: Adapting to de-dollarization," as part of the Atlantic Council report, "The US, EU, and UK need a shared approach to economic statecraft. Here’s where to start."

Talk of a BRICS common currency is “really a reflection of a desire among some segments of the world to have some counterweight to the U.S., the U.S. economy, the dollar,” says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science. But “I think most of this is just in fantasy land, because I don’t see any world in which it is really going to emerge in the way some people might hope.”

The Maxwell School associate professor of political science has been sought for the expertise he shared in his recent book, ‘Bucking the Buck.’

"After 9/11, the U.S. Treasury recognised that global dollar dominance gave Washington control over the critical plumbing of global finance. A new breed of financial sanctions emerged which could precisely cut individual targets—terrorists, foreign government officials, state institutions, firms—off from the dollar system. ‘Smart’ financial sanctions revolutionised economic warfare," writes Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science.

To ensure long-term efficacy, sanctions are often better left as a threat and not actually carried out, says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science. 

"Statements are easy, action is more difficult," says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science. "For oil-producing states, like Saudi Arabia, these sorts of statements and agitations are also a way to get America's attention. Flirting with the Chinese may make American policymakers focus more attention on the interests of the Gulf states." 

“To me, de-dollarization just means a government’s ability to reduce its dependence or reliance on the dollar,” says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science. “I think the key thing here is to try to distinguish or separate the concept of de-dollarization from the end of dollar dominance. I don’t think those two things have to go together.”

"Over the last 15 years or so, we've seen some policies aimed at promoting its [renminbi] international use, but we've also seen a lot of policies that make it less attractive," says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science.

“China had economic motives to de-dollarize that predate sanction concerns,” says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science. “When the U.S. economy had a financial crisis, China ended up getting hurt. China figured, we should probably promote our own currency now.”

“When China and Brazil sign an agreement like this, it’s trying to put into place the infrastructure that would make it possible to use China’s currency, but that doesn’t mean that individual firms are going to choose that,” says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science.

Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science, discussed the implications of sanctions for the dollar's status, the relationship between dollar dominance and U.S. sanction capabilities, and the response of U.S. major rivals to these measures.

Daniel McDowell, associate professor and director of undergraduate studies in political science, has written a new book, “Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash Against the Dollar” (Oxford University Press, 2023). 

While Russia’s use of the yuan doesn’t mean the end of dollar supremacy, it may usher in the beginning of a more fractured system that could ultimately blunt the U.S.’s ability to use financial sanctions as a weapon, says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science.

"Gold has become an attractive hedge against sanctions risk for central banks at risk of such penalties. While there are limitations to gold's usefulness compared to, say, U.S. Treasuries, its unique appeal is found in its physical form, unquestioned value, and the ability to store bars in national vaults, safe from foreign seizure," says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science.

"It hasn't reached the potential that I think many folks thought it might have, especially given China's overall economic size and role in world trade," Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science, tells BBC World News.

Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science, was selected to be a member of the 2022-23 Wilson China Fellowship class, a China-focused non-residential fellowship supporting the next generation of American scholarship on China.