Maxwell School of Syracuse University

Kerry Voters Most Likely to View Nation as Divided Between the Haves and Have-Nots

While the presidential election campaign has been dominated by Iraq and the war on terror, fundamental domestic issues of inequality and the role of government still play a major role in voter choice. These results emerged from a nationwide survey conducted by the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs during the last week.

A large percentage of respondents believe that inequality is an increasing problem in America. A substantial majority also agrees that we are becoming a society of haves and have-nots, and that opportunities to succeed are not widespread. Notably, there is a significant difference of opinion between those who support George Bush and those who support John Kerry in the presidential race.

The proportion of Americans who believe that the United States is becoming a society of haves and have-nots is much higher today than in four other polls conducted over the past 20 years.**

45.6% of respondents think income inequality has increased in the last 5-10 years, while only 23.8% see it as decreasing. A large majority see American society as becoming divided into haves and have-nots. When asked about how widespread the opportunity to succeed is in American society, only 28.8% say that everyone has this opportunity. 47.9% of respondents think most have this opportunity, while 22.3% see “only some” as having this opportunity.

Over the last 5-10 years, do you think income inequality has increased stayed the same, or decreased?

Do you think everyone in American society has an opportunity to succeed, most do, or do only some have this opportunity?

** A 1984 CBS/NYTimes poll showed that 31% of Americans believed the country was divided into haves and have-nots. A 1988 Gallup poll showed that 26% of Americans held this view, while a 1999 Gallup poll showed that 39% held this view. A 2001 Pew Research Center poll showed that 44% held this view. (These poll results were summarized in a June 21, 2001, report by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.)

The extent of inequality is seen as a serious problem by many Americans. 40.8% of respondents see the extent of inequality as a serious problem, while only 15% see it as not much of a problem. When asked what government should do to try to reduce inequality, 49.2% say do more, while only 19.8% say do less. Despite that, the public is divided about whether government programs or individual motivation is most important. 39.7% think government programs help a lot, while 38.9% think that individual motivation is most important.

Do you see the current extent of income inequality in our society as a serious problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem?

Should government do more to try to reduce inequality, about what it is doing now, or less than is done now?

There are lots of government programs (Head Start for young children, loans to go to college, job training) to try to create more equality of opportunity. Generally speaking, do you think these programs help a lot, or do you think the most important matter is individual motivation?

Programs help a lot		39.7
Both are important		18.9
Individual motivation most important		38.9
No opinion		2.5

Views about inequality have considerable impact on choice of presidential candidate. The table below indicates how those with different views about inequality issues are planning to vote in the presidential election. Those who see inequality as increasing are divided, while those who see no change support George Bush 61% to 23.5%. Those who think we have become a society of the haves and have-nots support John Kerry 49.6% to 32.6%, while those who disagree with this are strong supporters of Bush, 76.9% to 10.2%. Perceptions of the opportunity to succeed also affect partisan support. Those who have a positive view of the opportunity to succeed support Bush 65.6% – 16.9%, while those who see only some as having opportunity support Kerry 60.8% – 23.2%.

Concern about this issue and views of government programs also affect presidential vote choices. Those who see inequality as a serious problem support Kerry 57.3% – 23.7 %, while those who do not see it as much of a problem support Bush 78.6% – 9.5 %. Those who think government should do more to reduce inequality support Kerry 49.6% – 32.6%, while those who do not think the government should do more support Bush 76.9% – 10.2 %. Finally, those who see government programs as helping a lot support Kerry 48.2% - 39.3%, while those who see individual motivation as most important support Bush 53.9% – 26.7%.

The survey was conducted during the period October 9-19. A sample of telephone numbers was obtained from Survey Sampling, Inc. Their sample is representative of households within the continental United States. To reduce any bias involving those working in the evenings during the week, calls were made on the weekends of October 9-10 and October 16-17 during daytime hours. Otherwise, calls were made during the week between 5:30 p.m. and 9 p.m. within each time zone. As women are more likely to answer the phone at home, the “last birthday” method was used to randomize who was interviewed within each household. This approach also helps distribute contacts among different age groups.

The sample of those contacted is close to that of the population over 18 within the continental United States. There are some differences by age, sex, and race, however, so the results are weighted so the presence of each of these three groups within the overall results is equivalent to that of the continental U.S. population.

For further explanation of the conduct of this survey, contact Professor Jeffrey Stonecash, Department of Political Science, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York, 13244. You may call him at 315-443-3629 or send him an email at jstone@maxwell.syr.edu.

These results are drawn from the Campbell Institute Poll on Citizenship and Inequality, which was conducted on October 9-19, 2004. A nation-wide survey, the poll asked respondents questions about their engagement in political affairs and other aspects of civic life, as well as their views on social and economic inequality in the United States. Further analysis based on the results from this survey will be released by the Campbell Institute over the next three months, and will be posted at http://poll.campbellinstitute.org.

The Campbell Public Affairs Institute is a research center of the Maxwell School of Syracuse University. Its aim is to promote better understanding of contemporary challenges in democratic governance.

The Maxwell School of Syracuse University, founded in 1924, is the premier academic institution in the United States committed to scholarship, civic leadership, and education in public and international affairs. Maxwell is home to Syracuse University’s social science departments and to numerous nationally recognized multidisciplinary graduate programs in public policy, international studies, social policy, and conflict resolution. Maxwell's graduate program in public administration -- the first of its kind -- is ranked consistently the best in the nation.

Contact: Jill Leonhardt, director of communications, (315) 443-5492; jlleonha@maxwell.syr.edu.