arry Rosen sees Iran as a threat to global security, and believes its plans to acquire nuclear technology must be stopped. Some Iran experts disagree. They believe Iran's desire for nuclear capability is legitimate, given that, since 1980, the country's population has nearly doubled, from 36 to 70 million. Its energy needs are considerable.

"You cannot prevent Iran from producing domestic energy," says Guitty Khorsand-Tabatabai, a visiting professor at Maxwell this year and former TV correspondent, author, translator, and professor in Iran and France. "That's every nation's right." According to some estimates, Iran's oil supply is likely to last only 20-30 years, "so they have to have access to all these energy sources," she concludes.

"Having experienced a major demographic explosion, [Iran] can make a reasonable argument as to why they need to opt for nuclear technology," says Mehrzad Boroujerdi, associate professor of political science and director of Syracuse University's Middle Eastern Studies program. Of course, Iran is not only a major consumer of oil, but a major exporter of oil. Preserving its reserves is therefore doubly important. "[Iran] is practically a one-product economy," Boroujerdi says. "They depend for their well-being on how much oil they can sell."

And if Iran would use nuclear technology not only for energy but for weapons? Boroujerdi feels there is some justification. "I think the Iranians are saying-in the back of their minds, even though they're not saying it publicly-'Look, we live in a tough neighborhood.' All the major states in their neck of the woods are nuclear-powered, from Israel to countries like India and Pakistan to China, North Korea, and Russia. And you have American nuclear-powered submarines in the region as well. Naturally, they feel threatened in this regard. Like many states, they might feel that by possessing nuclear weapons they can deter foreign aggression."

Boroujerdi disagrees that "embargoes and sanctions and other punitive measures" like those proposed in the Iran Freedom Support Act (HR 282), which Rosen advocates, would have any effect on deterring Iran from acquiring nuclear technology. Iran has overcome past embargoes and sanctions by finding other customers for their oil. "Even if the U.S. decides it doesn't want to buy any more oil from Iran, all Iran needs are three customers-China, India, and Japan-and they're all set."

Seyyed Javad Tabatabai, also a visiting professor (and Guitty's husband), agrees that, given Iran's unstable and internecine internal politics, nuclear-deterring economic sanctions are pointless. "So far the American embargo has only one result: weakening the Iranian civil society and favoring the control of the state over it," he says. "All depends on this struggle between civil society and Islamic state. I believe that [the] American administration underestimates what is going on in the depths of Iranian civil society." Tabatabai is a one-time faculty member at Tehran University and author of more than a half-dozen books on political thought in Iran.

Former hostage Barry Rosen admits that the situation is, at best, complicated. He is not optimistic that any use of force against Iran is likely to be positive, especially given the outcome in Iraq. Yet, in his view, diplomacy is equally ineffective. "The Clinton administration actually apologized to Iran [for U.S. support of the Shah] and there was no response whatsoever," he says.

Boroujerdi is less skeptical about negotiation. The only realistic option for "dealing with this emerging crisis," he says, "is getting back to the bargaining table. . . . There has to be some give-and-take, some carrots with the sticks."

Boroujerdi believes, for example, that Iran might welcome Western scientists on-site at nuclear facilities, ensuring that materials are being used for peaceful energy production only. "The best way," he concludes, "would be for the two sides to sit down and recognize each other's point of view and the valid points every side is raising. Then try to come up with some creative solutions to this conflict."

Ultimately, says Khorsand-Tabatabai, the next generation of Iranians may be the key to repairing U.S.-Iran relations and averting world crisis. "The hatred toward the West in Iran is not profound," she says. "In the Arab world sometimes you see a big hatred toward Western society, but in Iran most of the young people admire Western values-not the state, but the people." Young Iranian women, in particular, she says, are fighting against the current conservative regime, "and they will overcome all the obstacles put in their way, but they need U.S. support."