BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 METHOD:PUBLISH PRODID:-//Telerik Inc.//Sitefinity CMS 15.1//EN BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:Eastern Standard Time BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:20251102T020000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYDAY=1SU;BYHOUR=2;BYMINUTE=0;BYMONTH=11 TZNAME:Eastern Standard Time TZOFFSETFROM:-0400 TZOFFSETTO:-0500 END:STANDARD BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20250301T020000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYDAY=2SU;BYHOUR=2;BYMINUTE=0;BYMONTH=3 TZNAME:Eastern Daylight Time TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 END:DAYLIGHT END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT DESCRIPTION:The Moynihan Institute’s program for Trade\, Development and Po litical Economy welcomes \;Tom Zylkin from the University of Richmond to discuss his working group's newest paper\, “Gravity with Persistence.”F or a variety of reasons\, trade flows may exhibit persistence. Exporting m ay require building destination-specific relationships and/or capital\, an d trade may generally need time to adjust to sudden trade cost shocks. Mor eover\, trade policies themselves may depend on recent changes in trade\, feeding back into current trade dynamics. We document how standard estimat es of the effects of trade policies using static panel data gravity models are significantly biased under any of these types of dynamics. Yet accoun ting for them is no easy feat\, since introducing endogenous regressors ca uses the three-way fixed effects PPML estimator to suffer from a severe as ymptotic bias problem even if the number of countries and the number of ti me periods are both large. To resolve these challenges\, we propose a dyna mic extension of the static gravity model that allows for zeroes in both p resent and past trade and demonstrate bias correction methods that remove most of the asymptotic bias. Even for static gravity model specifications\ , our bias corrections can serve to remove bias due to dynamic feedback be tween trade and trade policy variables.Paper Authors: Amrei Stammann (University of Bayreuth\, Amrei.Stammann@uni-bayreuth.de)\, Joschka Wanner (University of Würzburg\, joschka.wanner@uni-wuerzburg.de) Tom Zylkin (Un iversity of Richmond\, tzylkin@richmond.edu) DTEND:20250421T210500Z DTSTAMP:20260513T102316Z DTSTART:20250421T194500Z LOCATION: SEQUENCE:0 SUMMARY:Tom Zylkin | Gravity with Persistence UID:RFCALITEM639142501968877755 X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:

The Moynihan Institute’s program for Trade\ , Development and Political Economy welcomes \;Tom Zylkin from the Uni versity of Richmond to discuss his working group's newest paper\, “Gravity with Persistence.”

For a variety of reasons\, trade flows may exhib it persistence. Exporting may require building destination-specific relati onships and/or capital\, and trade may generally need time to adjust to su dden trade cost shocks. Moreover\, trade policies themselves may depend on recent changes in trade\, feeding back into current trade dynamics.

< p>We document how standard estimates of the effects of trade policies usin g static panel data gravity models are significantly biased under any of t hese types of dynamics. Yet accounting for them is no easy feat\, since in troducing endogenous regressors causes the three-way fixed effects PPML es timator to suffer from a severe asymptotic bias problem even if the number of countries and the number of time periods are both large.

To res olve these challenges\, we propose a dynamic extension of the static gravi ty model that allows for zeroes in both present and past trade and demonst rate bias correction methods that remove most of the asymptotic bias. Even for static gravity model specifications\, our bias corrections can serve to remove bias due to dynamic feedback between trade and trade policy vari ables.

Paper Authors: Amrei Stammann (University of Bayreuth\, Amrei.Stammann@uni-bayreut h.de)\, Joschka Wanner (University of Würzburg\, joschka.wanner@uni-wuerzburg.de) Tom Zylki n (University of Richmond\, tzylkin@ richmond.edu)

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