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DESCRIPTION:Trade\, Development and Political Economy and the Moynihan Inst
 itute of Global Affairs present:&nbsp\;\nIbrahim Gunay\, Assistant Profess
 or of Economics at SUNY AlbanyInternational Trade and Political\nIndepende
 nce:&nbsp\;Evidence from CataloniaThis\npaper analyzes the relationship be
 tween international trade and political\nindependence movements. In order 
 to test this relationship I use a municipal level dataset from Catalonia. 
 I assume\nthat secession of Catalonia\nfrom Spain would lead to higher sec
 toral trade\ncosts between these two regions\,\nand I compute the counterf
 actual effects of a\nsecession of Catalonia from Spain\non sectors in Cata
 lonia using a standard\ninternational trade model with data on bilateral\n
 trade flows and production. I find\naverage exposure to Catalan independen
 ce\nin each municipality and test the effect of\nthe variation of exposure
 \nto Catalan independence on pro-independence\nopinions. In order to forge
  a\ncausal link between these two variables\, I use\nexogenous changes of 
 bilateral\nsectoral trade costs between Western European\ncountries as an 
 instrument.\nThe estimation results show that\nmunicipalities with higher 
 exposure to secession\nhave 9.2% lower pro-independence opinions\ncontroll
 ing for other factors.\nPrevious cross-country studies\, which do not take
 \ninto account heterogeneity\nwithin a region and endogeneity issues\, ind
 icate\nthat there need not be a causal\nlink between international trade a
 nd political\nseparatism. In this work\, by\nexploiting tools\nfrom intern
 ational trade models for effects of policy changes\, and using a dataset t
 hat allows for variation\namong agents within a region\, I\nfill the gap a
 nd show that exposure to\ninternational and interregional trade\ndoes matt
 er for explaining the variation of\npolitical opinions for separatism.Spon
 sored by the&nbsp\;Trade Development and Political Economy Program&nbsp\;a
 t the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs&nbsp\; For more information con
 tact:\nMengxiao Liu\, mliu34@syr.edu  \nFor information on accessibility\,
  or to\nrequest accommodation\, please contact Marc Albert 315-315-9248.
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SUMMARY:Ibrahim Gunay - TDPE
UID:RFCALITEM639089181455240223
X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:<p>Trade\, Development and Political Economy a
 nd the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs present:&nbsp\;</p><p>\n<stron
 g>Ibrahim Gunay\,</strong> <em>Assistant Professor of Economics at SUNY Al
 bany</em></p><strong>International Trade and Political\nIndependence:&nbsp
 \;Evidence from Catalon</strong>ia<p>This\npaper analyzes the relationship
  between international trade and political\nindependence movements. In ord
 er to test this relationship I use a municipal level dataset from Cataloni
 a. I assume\nthat secession of Catalonia\nfrom Spain would lead to higher 
 sectoral trade\ncosts between these two regions\,\nand I compute the count
 erfactual effects of a\nsecession of Catalonia from Spain\non sectors in C
 atalonia using a standard\ninternational trade model with data on bilatera
 l\ntrade flows and production. I find\naverage exposure to Catalan indepen
 dence\nin each municipality and test the effect of\nthe variation of expos
 ure\nto Catalan independence on pro-independence\nopinions. In order to fo
 rge a\ncausal link between these two variables\, I use\nexogenous changes 
 of bilateral\nsectoral trade costs between Western European\ncountries as 
 an instrument.\nThe estimation results show that\nmunicipalities with high
 er exposure to secession\nhave 9.2% lower pro-independence opinions\ncontr
 olling for other factors.\nPrevious cross-country studies\, which do not t
 ake\ninto account heterogeneity\nwithin a region and endogeneity issues\, 
 indicate\nthat there need not be a causal\nlink between international trad
 e and political\nseparatism. In this work\, by\nexploiting tools\nfrom int
 ernational trade models for effects of policy changes\, and using a datase
 t that allows for variation\namong agents within a region\, I\nfill the ga
 p and show that exposure to\ninternational and interregional trade\ndoes m
 atter for explaining the variation of\npolitical opinions for separatism.<
 /p><p><b><i>Sponsored by the&nbsp\;<b><i>Trade Development and Political E
 conomy Program</i></b>&nbsp\;at the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs&n
 bsp\;</i></b> </p><p>For more information contact:\nMengxiao Liu\, <a href
 ="mailto:mliu34@syr.edu">mliu34@syr.edu</a> </p><p> </p>\n<p>For informati
 on on accessibility\, or to\nrequest accommodation\, please contact Marc A
 lbert 315-315-9248.</p>
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