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DESCRIPTION:Do Crises Have Lasting Effects on Trade? We explore country-lev
 el trade dynamics following past episodes of banking and debt crises. Usin
 g an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009\, we f
 ind that there is a sharp decline in a country’s imports in the year follo
 wing a crisis—14 percent\, on average—and this decline is persistent\, wit
 h imports remaining 12 percent below predicted\, 5 years after the crisis.
  This is in addition to any import compression due to lower output\, which
  the gravity model already controls for. In contrast\, exports of the cris
 is country are not as adversely affected\, and they remain close to the pr
 edicted level in both the short and medium-term. Prachi Mishra is an econo
 mist in the research department of the International Monetary Fund.&nbsp\;
  She is an expert on the political economy of trade\, foreign aid\, and th
 e effect of trade and emigration on income distribution.&nbsp\; Her recent
  work has focused on the impact of economic crises on lobbying and trade.
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DTSTAMP:20260514T064629Z
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SUMMARY:TDPE presents: Prachi Mishra
UID:RFCALITEM639143235899943637
X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:Do Crises Have Lasting Effects on Trade? We ex
 plore country-level trade dynamics following past episodes of banking and 
 debt crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from
  1970-2009\, we find that there is a sharp decline in a country’s imports 
 in the year following a crisis—14 percent\, on average—and this decline is
  persistent\, with imports remaining 12 percent below predicted\, 5 years 
 after the crisis. This is in addition to any import compression due to low
 er output\, which the gravity model already controls for. In contrast\, ex
 ports of the crisis country are not as adversely affected\, and they remai
 n close to the predicted level in both the short and medium-term. Prachi M
 ishra is an economist in the research department of the International Mone
 tary Fund.&nbsp\; She is an expert on the political economy of trade\, for
 eign aid\, and the effect of trade and emigration on income distribution.&
 nbsp\; Her recent work has focused on the impact of economic crises on lob
 bying and trade.
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