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DESCRIPTION:The Moynihan Insitute presents\, Kim Ruhl from the Univeristy o
 f Winsconsin.We use U.S. import dynamics and a dynamic exporting model to 
 estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around 
 the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelih
 ood of a trade war before 2018\; (ii) the trade war was initially expected
  to end quickly\, but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020\
 ; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non
 -normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply that the
  expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden
  than under President Trump.Kim Ruhl is the Curt and Sue Culver Professor 
 of Economics at the University of Wisconsin\, where he is the co-director 
 of the Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy.&nbsp\;His research fo
 cuses on international economics\, models of firm heterogeneity and nation
 al income accounting.&nbsp\; He holds a B.S. in economics from Bowling Gre
 en State University and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Minnes
 ota.&nbsp\;He is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Econo
 mic Research and a special sworn researcher at the U.S. Bureau of Economic
  Analysis\, where he studies the ways that multinational firms produce and
  sell goods and services around the world.
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SUMMARY:Kim Ruhl: Trade War and Peace: US-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 
 2015–2050
UID:RFCALITEM639143082338046159
X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:<div>The Moynihan Insitute presents\, Kim Ruhl
  from the Univeristy of Winsconsin.</div><div><br></div><div><p>We use U.S
 . import dynamics and a dynamic exporting model to estimate how expectatio
 ns about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade wa
 r. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood of a trade war befo
 re 2018\; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly\, but i
 ts expected duration grew substantially after 2020\; and (iii) the trade w
 ar reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-normal Trade Relations
  tariffs in the future. Our findings imply that the expected mean future U
 .S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President T
 rump.</p><p>Kim Ruhl is the Curt and Sue Culver Professor of Economics at 
 the University of Wisconsin\, where he is the co-director of the Center fo
 r Research on the Wisconsin Economy.&nbsp\;His research focuses on interna
 tional economics\, models of firm heterogeneity and national income accoun
 ting.&nbsp\; He holds a B.S. in economics from Bowling Green State Univers
 ity and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Minnesota.&nbsp\;<span
  style="background-color: rgba(0\, 0\, 0\, 0)\; color: inherit\; font-fami
 ly: inherit\; font-size: inherit\; text-align: inherit\; text-transform: i
 nherit\; word-spacing: normal\; caret-color: auto\; white-space: inherit">
 He is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Researc
 h and a special sworn researcher at the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis\,
  where he studies the ways that multinational firms produce and sell goods
  and services around the world.</span></p></div>
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