BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 METHOD:PUBLISH PRODID:-//Telerik Inc.//Sitefinity CMS 15.1//EN BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:Eastern Standard Time BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:20251102T020000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYDAY=1SU;BYHOUR=2;BYMINUTE=0;BYMONTH=11 TZNAME:Eastern Standard Time TZOFFSETFROM:-0400 TZOFFSETTO:-0500 END:STANDARD BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20250301T020000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYDAY=2SU;BYHOUR=2;BYMINUTE=0;BYMONTH=3 TZNAME:Eastern Daylight Time TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 END:DAYLIGHT END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT DESCRIPTION:William G. Resh\, Ph.D.Civic Leadership Education and Research (CLEAR) InitiativeSol Price School of Public PolicyUniversity of Southern CaliforniaUnited States federal government shutdowns have long been viewed as signs of government dysfunction. As shutdowns increase in frequency an d length for the US federal government\, it is not difficult to postulate that such dysfunction might have an impact on the federal government in te rms of its agencies’ relative ability to retain and recruit the talent nec essary to prevent loss of capacity and further dysfunction. However\, we k now little about the effects of these phenomena on the US federal civil se rvice labor market. This project explores the effects of shutdowns on agen cy policy implementation and personnel by using data from several differen t government sources that capture both elicited perceptions to observable behaviors. In so doing\, we model the internal and external impacts of a g overnment shutdown on both existing and prospective federal employees. In the first series of analyses\, we gauge the effect of shutdowns on both th e perceptions of federal employees and their observable actions. First\, w e examine the 2018-2019 shutdown on specific elements of agency policy imp lementation. The results suggest that shutdowns\, as a type of political s hock\, undermine the quality of government in the eyes of those closest to the work. The second and third studies consider the effect of shutdowns o n employee morale\, using the 2013\, and 2018-2019 shutdown. While our fin dings indicate that the 2013 shutdown wrought durable negative impacts on the morale of shutdown agency personnel\, that event appears to have prepa red agencies to absorb any negative morale impacts in the 2018-2019 shutdo wn. Our study shows both the immediate and long-term dynamics of governmen t shutdowns on policy implementation and the administrative workforce. In the second series of analyses\, we examine the effects on the inflow and o utflow dynamics of the federal labor market using (among other data) US Of fice of Personnel Management’s (OPM) Enterprise Human Resource Integration (EHRI) data of several million federal employee observations and several hundred thousand applicant observations from USAJobs.gov and USAStaffing.g ov across open lines in the federal government from 2018 to 2023. We focus on the 2018-2019 shutdown and its intervening impact of the 2018-2019 shu tdown on the federal labor market. Through the collection of agency contin gency plans and FOIA responses\, we are able to account for the relative i ntensity of the shutdown’s “intervention” by the extent to which an agency ’s workforce was furloughed. Whereas some shutdown agencies’ operations we re truly shut down by a completely furloughed workforce\, other shutdown a gencies were curtailed by less than 100% furloughed employees. In terms of outflows\, all separations from a federal government organization are not the same. Political principals may reorganize agencies in reaction to the shutdown. Such reorganizations can take the form of mass transfers of tal ent to other agencies or by reductions in force (RIF). Employees may leave through their own discretion by means of transferring out of an agency to another agency within the federal government\, early retirement\, regular retirement\, or by exiting the federal government by resignation. Each fo rm of employee turnover impacts an agency as a loss of existing capacity i n different ways\, and each form is affected differently by a government s hutdown. However\, we know little about the heterogeneous effect of shutdo wns on different forms of employee outflow. Indeed\, little research has b een conducted on how political environments affect employee turnover. On t he demand side\, agencies may acquire capacity by way of new hires\, throu gh contracting out to private sector organizations\, or through the direct transfer of extant federal civil servants from other agencies. However\, all acquisitions are certainly not the same either. Contracting out can re duce an agency's internal operational capacity\, new hires can vary in str ength as a function of market competitiveness\, and acquisitions can be ma de from within the federal government through transfers by the agency's ow n initiative or by fiat through executive or legislatively designed reorga nizations. In sum\, government shutdowns have immense influence on public personnel management. In this research agenda\, we analyze how agencies st rategically change separations and accessions (demand side of labor) and e xamine how this may affect potential applicants of public service (supply side). We expect that such a comprehensive approach will contribute to the executive politics and public administration scholarship along with provi ding important insights for practitioners. DTEND:20230501T180000Z DTSTAMP:20260415T042448Z DTSTART:20230501T163000Z LOCATION: SEQUENCE:0 SUMMARY:Governance Capacity and Policy Impacts of U.S. Government Shutdowns : A Research Agenda UID:RFCALITEM639118094886432332 X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:

William G. Resh\, Ph.D.

< p align="center">Civic Leadership Education and Research (CLEAR) Initiativ e
Sol Price School of Public Policy
University of Southern Californi a

United States federal government shutdowns have long been viewed as signs of government dysfunction. As shutdowns increase in f requency and length for the US federal government\, it is not difficult to postulate that such dysfunction might have an impact on the federal gover nment in terms of its agencies’ relative ability to retain and recruit the talent necessary to prevent loss of capacity and further dysfunction. How ever\, we know little about the effects of these phenomena on the US feder al civil service labor market. This project explores the effects of shutdo wns on agency policy implementation and personnel by using data from sever al different government sources that capture both elicited perceptions to observable behaviors. In so doing\, we model the internal and external imp acts of a government shutdown on both existing and prospective federal emp loyees.

In the first series of analyses\, we gauge the effect of shutdowns on both the perceptions of federal employees and thei r observable actions. First\, we examine the 2018-2019 shutdown on specifi c elements of agency policy implementation. The results suggest that shutd owns\, as a type of political shock\, undermine the quality of government in the eyes of those closest to the work. The second and third studies con sider the effect of shutdowns on employee morale\, using the 2013\, and 20 18-2019 shutdown. While our findings indicate that the 2013 shutdown wroug ht durable negative impacts on the morale of shutdown agency personnel\, t hat event appears to have prepared agencies to absorb any negative morale impacts in the 2018-2019 shutdown. Our study shows both the immediate and long-term dynamics of government shutdowns on policy implementation and th e administrative workforce.

In the second series of an alyses\, we examine the effects on the inflow and outflow dynamics of the federal labor market using (among other data) US Office of Personnel Manag ement’s (OPM) Enterprise Human Resource Integration (EHRI) data of several million federal employee observations and several hundred thousand applic ant observations from USAJobs.gov and USAStaffing.gov across open lines in the federal government from 2018 to 2023. We focus on the 2018-2019 shutd own and its intervening impact of the 2018-2019 shutdown on the federal la bor market.

Through the collection of agency contingen cy plans and FOIA responses\, we are able to account for the relative inte nsity of the shutdown’s “intervention” by the extent to which an agency’s workforce was furloughed. Whereas some shutdown agencies’ operations were truly shut down by a completely furloughed workforce\, other shutdown agen cies were curtailed by less than 100% furloughed employees.

In terms of outflows\, all separations from a federal government org anization are not the same. Political principals may reorganize agencies i n reaction to the shutdown. Such reorganizations can take the form of mass transfers of talent to other agencies or by reductions in force (RIF). Em ployees may leave through their own discretion by means of transferring ou t of an agency to another agency within the federal government\, early ret irement\, regular retirement\, or by exiting the federal government by res ignation. Each form of employee turnover impacts an agency as a loss of ex isting capacity in different ways\, and each form is affected differently by a government shutdown. However\, we know little about the heterogeneous effect of shutdowns on different forms of employee outflow. Indeed\, litt le research has been conducted on how political environments affect employ ee turnover.

On the demand side\, agencies may acquire capacity by way of new hires\, through contracting out to private sector organizations\, or through the direct transfer of extant federal civil ser vants from other agencies. However\, all acquisitions are certainly not th e same either. Contracting out can reduce an agency's internal operational capacity\, new hires can vary in strength as a function of market competi tiveness\, and acquisitions can be made from within the federal government through transfers by the agency's own initiative or by fiat through execu tive or legislatively designed reorganizations.

In sum \, government shutdowns have immense influence on public personnel managem ent. In this research agenda\, we analyze how agencies strategically chang e separations and accessions (demand side of labor) and examine how this m ay affect potential applicants of public service (supply side). We expect that such a comprehensive approach will contribute to the executive politi cs and public administration scholarship along with providing important in sights for practitioners.

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