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DTSTART:20251102T020000
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DESCRIPTION:Trade Development and Political Economy Present: Justin R. Pier
 ce on "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment"Abs
 tract: This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturin
 g employment after 2001 and the elimination of trade policy uncertainty re
 sulting from the U.S. granting of permanent normal trade relations to Chin
 a in late 2000. We find that industries where the threat of tariff hikes d
 eclines the most experience greater employment loss due to suppressed job 
 creation\, exaggerated job destruction and a substitution away from low-sk
 ill workers. We show that these policy-related employment losses coincide 
 with a relative acceleration of U.S. imports from China\, the number of U.
 S. firms importing from China\, the number of Chinese firms exporting to t
 he U.S.\, and the number of U.S.-China importer-exporter pairs.Short Bio:&
 nbsp\; Justin Pierce is an economist at the Federal Reserve Board of Gover
 nors.&nbsp\; His research focuses on the behavior of U.S. firms affected b
 y international trade. 
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DTSTAMP:20260511T165821Z
DTSTART:20131202T210000Z
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SUMMARY:Trade Development and Political Economy present: Justin R. Pierce 
UID:RFCALITEM639141011013785205
X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:Trade Development and Political Economy Presen
 t: Justin R. Pierce on "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturi
 ng Employment"<br><br>Abstract: This paper finds a link between the sharp 
 drop in U.S. manufacturing employment after 2001 and the elimination of tr
 ade policy uncertainty resulting from the U.S. granting of permanent norma
 l trade relations to China in late 2000. We find that industries where the
  threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience greater employment lo
 ss due to suppressed job creation\, exaggerated job destruction and a subs
 titution away from low-skill workers. We show that these policy-related em
 ployment losses coincide with a relative acceleration of U.S. imports from
  China\, the number of U.S. firms importing from China\, the number of Chi
 nese firms exporting to the U.S.\, and the number of U.S.-China importer-e
 xporter pairs.<br><br>Short Bio:&nbsp\; Justin Pierce is an economist at t
 he Federal Reserve Board of Governors.&nbsp\; His research focuses on the 
 behavior of U.S. firms affected by international trade. <br><br>
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