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DESCRIPTION:Kyle Handley\, Assistant Professor of Business Economics and Pu
 blic Policy\, University of Michigan.&nbsp\; Policy Uncertainty\, Trade an
 d Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S.We\nassess the impact
  of U.S. trade policy uncertainty (TPU) toward China in a\ntractable gener
 al equilibrium framework with heterogeneous firms. We show that\nincreased
  TPU reduces investment in export entry and technology upgrading\,\nwhich 
 in turn reduces trade flows and real income for consumers. We apply the\nm
 odel to analyze China's export boom around its WTO accession and argue tha
 t in\nthe case of the U.S. the most important policy effect was a reductio
 n in TPU:\ngranting permanent normal trade relationship status and thus en
 ding the annual\nthreat to revert to Smoot-Hawley tariff levels. We constr
 uct a\ntheory-consistent measure of TPU and estimate that it can explain b
 etween\n22-30% of Chinese exports to the US after WTO accession. We also e
 stimate a welfare\ngain of removing this TPU for U.S. consumers and find i
 t is of similar\nmagnitude to the U.S. gain from new imported varieties in
  1990-2001.Open to the PublicSponsored by the Trade Development and Politi
 cal Economy Program at the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs
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SUMMARY:TDPE presents: Kyle Handley
UID:RFCALITEM639140737871270497
X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:<p></p><p></p><p><b>Kyle Handley</b>\, <i>Assi
 stant Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy\, University of Mi
 chigan</i>.&nbsp\;</p><p> <b>Policy Uncertainty\, Trade and Welfare: Theor
 y and Evidence for China and the U.S.</b></p><p>We\nassess the impact of U
 .S. trade policy uncertainty (TPU) toward China in a\ntractable general eq
 uilibrium framework with heterogeneous firms. We show that\nincreased TPU 
 reduces investment in export entry and technology upgrading\,\nwhich in tu
 rn reduces trade flows and real income for consumers. We apply the\nmodel 
 to analyze China's export boom around its WTO accession and argue that in\
 nthe case of the U.S. the most important policy effect was a reduction in 
 TPU:\ngranting permanent normal trade relationship status and thus ending 
 the annual\nthreat to revert to Smoot-Hawley tariff levels. We construct a
 \ntheory-consistent measure of TPU and estimate that it can explain betwee
 n\n22-30% of Chinese exports to the US after WTO accession. We also estima
 te a welfare\ngain of removing this TPU for U.S. consumers and find it is 
 of similar\nmagnitude to the U.S. gain from new imported varieties in 1990
 -2001.</p><p>Open to the Public</p><p><b>Sponsored by the Trade Developmen
 t and Political Economy Program at the Moynihan Institute of Global Affair
 s</b></p><p></p><p></p>
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