Economics News

Lovely speaks to SCMP about the EU's new trade policy

Last week, the European Union unveiled a new foreign trade policy that signals greater cooperation with Washington and warns of unspecified measures it reserves the right to take against China to blunt "negative spillovers" from the approach Beijing takes to trade and investment. "The new EU trade policy tries to strike a principled balance between the U.S. and China, with clear signals to both that it will set its own course," says Professor Mary Lovely. "Finding a way forward that is both 'open' and 'autonomous' will be difficult, however, as openness brings interdependence," she says. Read more in the South China Morning Post article, "European Union unveils new trade policy, warns of measures to blunt 'negative spillovers' from China."

Lovely discusses resilience of US supply chains on Brookings podcast

Global trade may not dominate the news in the early days of Joe Biden’s presidency, but it does factor into many of the challenges the United States is currently facing. Professor Mary Lovely was a guest on the Brookings Institution podcast "Dollar & Sense" to discuss the resilience of U.S. supply chains, the potential effects of Biden’s "Buy American" policy, U.S. engagement with China, and other early lessons from the Biden administration’s emerging trade agenda.

Rosenthal cited in Financial Post article on commercial real estate

A recent paper co-authored by Professor Stuart Rosenthal, was cited in the Financial Post article, "Why the automobile has become a kingmaker for downtown commercial real estate." The authors' empirical analysis of 56,765 commercial leases signed between January 2019 and October 2020 across 109 urban centers in the United States revealed that commercial real estate in the urban core, especially in cities where public transit accounts for a sizable share of work trips, has indeed lost value.

Liu examines how firm integration decisions are made in new study

"The missing option in firm boundary decisions," authored by Assistant Professor of Economics Mengxiao Liu, was published in European Economic Review. Liu argues that both the integrating firm and the integrated firm matter in integration decisions. She proposes a method to incorporate both firms into the integration decision and finds support for this method in a novel dataset.

Lovely discusses Biden's approach to trade in Associated Press article

For Now, the Biden administration seems intent on approaching trade with caution and deliberation. Instead, the administration’s policymakers are focusing on other, unrelated priorities, such as the pandemic. "He is going to take his time," says Professor Mary Lovely. "Biden has said repeatedly that he needs America to be stronger before he takes on a lot of these trade issues.’" Read more in the Associated Press article, "Biden treads carefully around Trump's combative trade policy."

Baltagi celebrated in special issue of Empirical Economics journal

Empirical Economics published a special issue to celebrate Distinguished Professor of Economics Badi Baltagi’s myriad contributions to the field of econometrics, as well as his long service to the journal. The influential work carried out by Baltagi during the past four decades or so is recognized in the issue by nineteen peer-reviewed, state-of-the-art articles, written by some of the leading researchers in econometrics. The diversity of the topics covered in "Essays in honor of Professor Badi H. Baltagi" constitutes a testament to the wide-ranging scope of Baltagi's research interests and contributions.

Lovely quoted in Politico article on impact of Trump's trade policy

"The Trump administration never had a feasible plan for reducing the trade deficit," explains Professor Mary Lovely. "Their 2017 tax cut ensured that the U.S. as a whole would continue to spend more than it produced, hence the need for a current account deficit. The tariffs on China reduced imports from China, but these were mostly replaced with imports from other sources." Read more in the Politico article, "America’s trade gap soared under Trump, final figures show."

Schwartz discusses her recent special ed study with Hechinger Report

"They’re closing the gap with their general education peers by about a sixth," says Professor Amy Ellen Schwartz, Daniel Patrick Moynihan Chair in Public Affairs and lead author of the recently published study, "The Effects of Special Education on the Academic Performance of Students with Learning Disabilities." "Their performance [in special ed] jumps up compared to other peers with learning disabilities who are not yet diagnosed" and still part of the general education population, she says. Read more in the Hechinger Report article, "PROOF POINTS: New answers to old questions about special education."

Lovely weighs in on Trump's failed trade war with China in Bloomberg

"China is too big and too important to the world economy to think that you can cut it out like a paper doll," says Professor Mary Lovely. "The Trump administration had a wake-up call." Read more in the Bloomberg article, "How China Won Trump’s Trade War and Got Americans to Foot the Bill."

Lovely talks to Marketplace about Capitol riot, foreign investors

Professor Mary Lovely sees the nation in uncharted territory and is focused on the question of how much uncertainty was added into the system Wednesday. "In the world of research on foreign direct investment, we know that foreign investors like certainty," Lovely explains. "So, for example, even though China’s an authoritarian state, we see lots of foreign investment flowing into China. Investment flows to democracies and non-democracies as well." Lovely was interviewed for the Marketplace article, "Will the riot in Washington deter foreign investment in the U.S.?"

Lovely predicts what 2021 will bring for China in Politico

"China pushed the boundaries of acceptable international behavior during the Trump years, exploiting the absence of consistent American leadership," says Professor Mary Lovely. "With a new administration committed to rebuilding alliances taking the reins in Washington, China will pause its more aggressive actions in a bid to stave off broader export controls," she says. Lovely was quoted in the Politico article, "China 2021: Experts make their one big prediction."

Lovely talks to WSJ, Yahoo! about future of US buying practices, trade

Professor Mary Lovely spoke with several media outlets about the US-China trade landscape for 2021, the future of tariffs and the impact of President-elect Biden's buy America pledge. "The most important thing right now is to repair our relationship with the European Union, Japan, and other allies," Lovely told Yahoo! Finance. "I think it would be wise for the Biden administration to work with allies. And then to work through negotiations with China on how these tariffs might be rolled back."

Liu study on multi-function products, firm scope/boundaries published

"What’s the big idea? Multi-function products, firm scope and firm boundaries," co-authored by Assistant Professor of Economics Mengxiao Liu, was published in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. The authors examine the implications that flow from the fact that some firms are so much better than others at the Big Idea, that is, at identifying and bundling clusters of functions. The authors also look at how firms decide whether to outsource functions or produce them in-house given the holdup problems associated with bringing ideas to market and coordinating multiple suppliers.

Schwartz discusses challenges of post-COVID school mobility in The 74

"The literature says, 'These [mobile] kids do worse,'" says Amy Ellen Schwartz, Daniel Patrick Moynihan Chair in Public Affairs. "But really, on the whole, we’re unable to fully disentangle the effects of moving from the underlying factors that led to it. And from a policy point of view, I’m not sure it matters: You show me a kid who’s moved three times in the last eight months, I’ll show you a kid who needs special attention," she says. Read more in The 74 article, "Research Shows Changing Schools Can Make or Break a Student, But the Wave of Post-COVID Mobility May Challenge the Systems in Ways We’ve Never Seen."

Alumna Kristen Patel named Gregg Professor of Practice at Maxwell

Kristen (Kris) Patel, a distinguished alumna of the Maxwell School (’90 Econ, PSt) with more than 25 years of experience leading intelligence and analytics programs in the public and private sectors, is the new Donald P. and Margaret Curry Gregg Professor of Practice in Korean and East Asian Affairs. In her new role, Patel will serve as faculty member in the Policy Studies Program and teach undergraduate courses in policy studies and graduate courses in public administration and international affairs. Patel will be a research associate in Maxwell’s PARCC and contribute to Syracuse University’s Intelligence Center Community of Academic Excellence.

Lovely talks to Agweek about Biden's approach on trade issues

"We know to expect, clearly from his history, that President-elect Biden will work more closely with Western allies and use international institutions to promote new global initiatives," says Professor Mary Lovely. "This is, of course, realizing that his first-year focus is going to have to be on the domestic agenda, in particular getting the COVID-19 outbreak under control and reviving the U.S. economy," she says. Read more in the Agweek article, "Biden expected to approach trade differently than Trump."

Lovely discusses US-China trade under Biden in Iowa Capital Dispatch

Professor Mary Lovely says concessions would be key to returning U.S.-Chinese relations to normal. "If there’s going to be some type of rapprochement with China on this, there’s going to have to be negotiations before that between the Chinese and the Americans that deescalate the conflict and result in some other wins from both sides," she says. Read more in the Iowa Capital Dispatch article, "Farmers likely to see more multinational trade deals crafted in Biden administration."

Lovely quoted in New York Times article on the RCEP

"RCEP [Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership] gives foreign companies enhanced flexibility in navigating between the two giants," says Professor Mary Lovely. "Lower tariffs within the region increases the value of operating within the Asian region, while the uniform rules of origin make it easier to pull production away from the Chinese mainland while retaining that access." Read more in the New York Times article, "China-Led Trade Pact Is Signed, in Challenge to U.S."

Lovely discusses US trade ties with Asia-Pacific nations in Bloomberg

"The choice for Biden is clear," says Mary Lovely, professor of economics. "Return the U.S. to the Trans-Pacific Partnership to ensure access for U.S. companies." She was quoted in the Bloomberg article, "China-Anchored Free-Trade Zone, World’s Biggest, Nearly Done."

Flores-Lagunes comments on October jobs report in MarketWatch

A stronger than expected October jobs report showed declining national jobless rates, and unemployment declines across all major worker demographics. According to Professor Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, improving jobs numbers may have "some explanatory power for the good showing by the president on election night." But there could be other factors too, like the campaign’s outreach efforts. "Just to be sure to make clear, we are nowhere out of the woods in this pandemic-induced recession," he adds. Read more in the MarketWatch article, "October jobs report suggests why some Black and Latino voters voted for Trump."

Flores-Lagunes quoted in WSJ article on US unemployment

"As these last few weeks have shown us, the pandemic is not over," says Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, professor of economics. He says the recent surge in COVID-19 cases could lead to another round of business closures and job losses, potentially unwinding a portion of the labor market’s summer rebound. And until a vaccine becomes widely available, Flores-Lagunes says, weaker consumer demand will continue to weigh on the recovery. "Going back to normal in terms of economic activity really depends on getting the virus under control," he says. Read more in the Wall Street Journal article, "U.S. Unemployment Claims Held Nearly Steady Last Week."

Lovely comments on auto trade under Biden presidency in CNBC article

"On automotive trade, I don’t think you’re going to see Biden making much of a move," says Professor Mary Lovely. "There’s no way, especially with the labor support Biden has, he’s going to change that." Read more in the CNBC article, "What a Trump or Biden win for president means for U.S. automakers." Lovely was also quoted in the Law360 article, "'Made In America' 2020 Tax Policies Short On Details."

Lovely speaks to SCMP about the future of trade, CPTPP

Trump’s vision of a "Fortress America," where US manufacturers produce everything they need domestically, is unrealistic, says Professor Mary Lovely. "The Trumpers have this idea that we‘re going to bring supply chains back home, and that is not going to happen, so where are we going?" Lovely says, "if we want to reduce our dependence on China, the only other game in town, besides the USMCA [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement], is CPTPP [Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership]." Read more in the South China Morning Post article, "Could a win for Joe Biden see the US re-engaging on global trade?"

Engelhardt discusses housing-related financial distress in USA Today

"With the current eviction moratorium expiring in January, the situation could be even more challenging for renters," says Gary Engelhardt, professor of economics. "Many renter households across the country could find themselves with no place to live and no means to repay missed payments." Engelhardt was quoted in the USA Today article, "More than 6M households missed their rent or mortgage payment in September."

Lovely speaks to BNN Bloomberg, Politico about Trump's use of tariffs

"Short-term fixes like tariffs don’t work," Professor Mary Lovely, tells Politico. "It’s magical thinking." The large U.S. trade deficit is fundamentally driven by larger economic factors — like the fact Americans spend more than they save and have to borrow from abroad to finance the difference, she says. Lovely also spoke to BNN Bloomberg about Trump's use of tariffs.

Singleton study on labor unions, workplace safety published

"Labor Unions and Workplace Safety," co-authored by Associate Professor of Economics Perry Singleton, Ling Li '17 MA (Econ)/'18 PhD (Econ), and Shawn Rohlin '06 MA (Econ)/'09 PhD (Econ), was published in the IRL Review. The study findings indicate that unionization had no detectable effect on accident case rates at the mean, but shifted downward the case-rate distribution below 2 cases per 100 full-time equivalent workers annually. The downward shift is most evident among larger bargaining units and manufacturing establishments

Lovely quoted in Washington Times article on Trump, Biden and trade

"I would just say an important difference between Biden and Trump, when the smoke clears, is that Biden wants to work with the allies," says Professor Mary Lovely. She was quoted in the Washington Times article, "Trump bets on trade issues as Biden struggles to find footing."

Shifa paper on trade in high-skilled human capital published

"Trade in Human Capital: A Quantitative Theory of Economic Growth and the Import of Higher Education," written by Assistant Professor of Economics Abdulaziz Shifa, was published in Macroeconomic Dynamics. Shifa presents a stylized quantitative model of trade in high-skilled human capital, in which colleges in a developing country can hire high quality teachers from a developed country. In the model, the use of foreign teachers is proposed as a possible mechanism to build domestic capacity for advanced education.

Lovely comments on US-China tech war in Axios article

The torrent of anti-Chinese rhetoric by the Trump administration recently has been countered by much softer actions, as the administration attempts to "thread the needle" of looking tough heading into the election while having the Chinese continue to purchase U.S. goods, says Professor Mary Lovely. "The tech issue is the big one … for the long term, but for the election it’s not at all clear to me that the tech issue is the big one," she says. Read more in the Axios article, "The tech war between the U.S. and China escalates."

Engelhardt cited in TRD article on COVID's impact on housing costs

Professor Gary Engelhardt notes that a new federal stimulus package would be essential to help prevent more households, particularly renters, from running into difficulties paying their housing costs. "Particularly for renters, the combination of those who missed a payment — or were offered and did not take it — is substantive enough to suggest real risk to their ability to make upcoming payments," says Engelhardt. He was quoted in the Real Deal article, "Landlords lost about $9B in rental payments last quarter: report."

Study by Ali, Shifa on colonial power, corruption in Africa published

"European colonization and the corruption of local elites: The case of chiefs in Africa," co-authored by Merima Ali and Abdulaziz Shifa, both assistant professors of economics, was published in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. Using microdata from nationally representative surveys in anglophone and francophone countries in Africa, Ali and Shifa found that corruption among anglophone chiefs is significantly higher than that of francophone chiefs. They also found that anglophone chiefs command a significantly lower level of public trust.

Lovely op-ed on restoring US manufacturing published in Express-News

"To restore U.S. manufacturing jobs, we need to ask why production costs are higher here than abroad. We need to rebalance the costs and benefits to favor the U.S.," writes Professor Mary Lovely. "To successfully manufacture in the U.S. and pay American wages, employers use advanced capital equipment. We need to lower the cost of creating such factories while ensuring American workers are ready for the demands." Read Lovely's full article, "Bring back manufacturing? Then invest in America," published by the San Antonio Express-News

Lovely quoted in Reuters article on how Biden will handle tariffs

Because Biden is backed by groups with conflicting interests, it may add up to a wait-and-see approach that could keep many of the tariffs he would inherit from Trump in place for years, say former and current advisers, lobbyists and trade analysts. "It’s unclear how he will balance these different competing forces," says Professor Mary Lovely. She was quoted in the Reuters article "Pulled in many directions, Biden may keep Trump's China tariffs in place."

Mitra, Karakas paper on the political economy of populism published

"Inequality, redistribution and the rise of outsider candidates," co-authored by Professor Devashish Mitra and Leyla Karakas, assistant professor of economics, was published in Games and Economic Behavior. In their paper, Mitra and Karakas study the growth in voters' support for outsider candidates with a focus on understanding the potential role of increasing income inequality.

Schwartz discusses NYC school bus service in Gotham Gazette

"Should New York City Cut School Bus Service?," co-authored by Amy Ellen Schwartz, Daniel Patrick Moynihan Chair in Public Affairs, was published in Gotham Gazette. The authors explore different options for districts to allocate scarce busing resources to best support students. Christopher Rick, PhD candidate in public administration and international affairs, is also a co-author.

Lovely weighs in on China's purchase targets, trade deal in Wash Post

"No, they’re not on target,” says Professor Mary Lovely about US exports to China. "Even if they buy huge amounts, they’re not going to be on target." Lovely was quoted in the Washington Post article "Trump’s trade deal with China: More bluster than boom." She was also interviewed for the Marketplace segment "Trump doubles down on trade; China is far from meeting promises."

Lovely weighs in on postponed review of US-China trade deal in Reuters

"I think Trump is a little afraid that this triumph of his will be hung around his neck, but more purchases and a bit of a delay would clearly help," says Professor Mary Lovely. "But he does own it, so they’re going to have to put the best face on it," she says of the Phase 1 deal. Lovely was quoted in the Reuters article "Exclusive: U.S.-China trade deal review postponed as China ramps up farm, energy purchases."

Lovely speaks to China Daily about US techno-nationalism

Professor Mary Lovely says it's "not true" that the US sees all its technological advantages being stolen by China. "We can see the majority of high-tech goods, defined by the Chinese, are still being exported by foreign-invested enterprises operating in China. And (we can see) the amazing amount of R&D which is being done jointly by foreign companies in China, as well as the productivity of Chinese scholars (operating internationally)," she says. Read more in the China Daily article "'Techno-nationalism' unlikely to succeed: experts."

Lovely weighs in on EU-China investment agreement in SCMP

"Given that many Chinese outward investors are state-owned or state-invested firms with access to state-owned banks, showing an absence of government subsidy could be difficult. Thus, the proposal alone can deter Chinese investment activity in Europe. In short, the pandemic has led to greater fear of Chinese unfair practices, not less," says Professor Mary Lovely. She was quoted in the South China Morning Post article "EU-China ties hinge on Germany’s political future as reign of Beijing ally Angela Merkel nears its end."

Lovely comments on Barr's speech on pro-China policies in Wash Post

Attorney General William P. Barr recently accused Beijing of pressuring American business leaders to promote pro-China policies in the United States, and suggested that U.S. executives who do so might be violating U.S. lobbying laws. Professor Mary Lovely says the speech "seems designed to show the world that the U.S. will interpret every action of multinational firms operating in China through a lens of bilateral hostility." She was interviewed for the Washington Post article "William Barr cites Disney, Apple in speech accusing U.S. companies of ‘kowtowing’ to China."

Lovely speaks to Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg about USMCA, China

"The champagne isn’t quite as fizzy as we might have expected - even under the best of circumstances - and there’s trouble coming from all sides," Professor Mary Lovely told Reuters about the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. "This could be a trade agreement that quickly ends up in dispute and higher trade barriers." Lovely also spoke to Yahoo Finance and Bloomberg about US-China tensions.

Mitra discusses what India needs to do to attract GSCs in ET

"View: India has to catch up in infrastructure and skill-building to play role in global supply chains," written by Devashish Mitra, Gerald B. and Daphna Cramer Professor of Global Affairs, was published in the Economic Times. Mitra says attracting global supply chains (GCS) to India is actually very hard work. "There is no strategy other than considerable additional investment and effort into infrastructure and skill-building, tackling power bottlenecks, reforms in labour and land regulations and keeping protectionist forces at bay," he says.

Lovely discusses Trump's Hong Kong policy in CNN article

"Revoking the city's special status will subject its exports to the high tariffs the president levied against China during his ongoing trade war," says Professor Mary Lovely. "But this change will barely budge the status quo," she says, "because Hong Kong's economy consists mostly of financial, logistical and other services, not manufactured goods." Her article, "Trump's removal of Hong Kong's special status hurts the US more than China," was published on CNN.com.

Tóbiás featured in WalletHub article on economic fallout from COVID-19

Áron Tóbiás, assistant professor of economics, says the most important lesson that state authorities can learn from the economic fallout of this pandemic is "the unexpected happens—better be prepared." He adds, "From a public finance perspective, state governments (and the federal government, too) might want to think about setting up more robust rainy-day funds once this crisis is over." Read more in the WalletHub article "States That Need Most Financial Help Due to COVID-19."

Lovely comments on the future of the US-China trade deal in SCMP

"The priority the two sides are placing on the deal is not so much a way to repair damage as it is to not cause further damage," says Professor Mary Lovely. "If the US announces the deal is dead, Trump is locked into some kind of retaliation." Read more in the South China Morning Post article "Donald Trump says China is buying ‘a lot’ of US products."

Mitra discusses India's need for an effective rescue plan in ET

"As reviving the economy is not possible without restarting production, there needs to be a phased exit from the lockdown through extensive testing that identifies people who can go back to work with the confidence that they won’t contract the disease from others," says Devashish Mitra. His article "View: India needs structural reforms for growth to make a strong comeback," was published in the Economic Times.

Lovely weighs in on US-China trade deal targets, tensions on NPR

Professor Mary Lovely says targets for exports of farm goods, factory products, and crude oil were always going to be a stretch. And the coronavirus pandemic has made things worse. "The world has changed," Lovely says. "And clearly, China's purchases are going to be affected." Lovely was interviewed by NPR for the segment titled "U.S.-China Tensions Were Already High. Pandemic And Hong Kong Have Made Things Worse."

Lovely quoted in SBG article on COVID-19, US manufacturing

Professor Mary Lovely believes maintaining a globalized economy is more sustainable for the countries involved than moving manufacturing to the United States unnecessarily. "There’s this idea that there’s a fixed number of jobs to go around and we need to bring them back here for people to have," she says. "That’s not exactly true." Lovely was interviewed for the Sinclair Broadcast Group article "Pandemic exposes need to bring some manufacturing back to US."

Mitra recommends AEZ model for India's economy in Economic Times

In his co-authored article titled "View: How a successful 'AEZ Model' can remove India's structural bottlenecks," Devashish Mitra, Gerald B. and Daphna Cramer Professor of Global Affairs, explains how the use of Autonomous Economic Zones (AEZs) can be helpful in accelerating the creation of well paying jobs in India. The piece was published in the Economic Times.

Maxwell faculty and students honored with 2020 One University awards

Syracuse University announced its 2020 One University Awards, honoring members of the University community for their scholarship, teaching, academic achievement, leadership and service. The annual ceremony was scheduled to take place on April 17 in Hendricks Chapel, but was canceled due to COVID-19 guidelines.

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