Economics News

Lovely weighs in on US China trade plan in Reuters article

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai unveiled her plan for trade with China on Monday, pledging to hold talks with Chinese officials over their failure to meet the terms of former President Donald Trump's "Phase 1" trade deal, and to revive a process to grant exclusions from tariffs on Chinese imports. "She's going to re-engage with China and that's a good thing," says Professor Mary Lovely. "But her whole plan seems to be, 'I'm going to have a conversation.'" Read more in the Reuters article, "New U.S. China trade plan leaves industry hungry for specifics."

Researchers examine COVID’s toll on NYC children’s health, education

Amy Ellen Schwartz, professor of economics and public administration and international affairs, is one of two principal investigators for a five-year research project to examine how, over time, COVID-19 has affected children’s health and education in New York City. Maxwell School faculty colleague Michah W. Rothbart is among the co-investigators. Funded by the National Institutes of Health, the $3.5 million study is a collaboration by researchers at Syracuse University, New York University and the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.

Maxwell School announces Montonna Professor, Dean’s Award Recipients

Osamah F. Khalil, associate professor of history and chair of the undergraduate program in international relations, was recently awarded the Dr. Ralph E. Montonna Endowed Professorship for the Teaching and Education of Undergraduates. He will hold the professorship for the 2021-22 academic year. In addition, Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science, received the Maxwell School Dean’s Award for Undergraduate Mentoring, and Kristy Buzard, associate professor of economics, was awarded the Maxwell School Dean’s Award for Innovative Teaching.

Dutkowsky weighs in on the ongoing labor shortage in CNY Central piece

Wegmans, normally rated one of the nation's best places to work, is currently experiencing the effects of the ongoing shortage in labor. They will be hosting a virtual hiring event to try and fill more than 200 open positions in Syracuse area stores. "I think you're seeing two groups pulling against each other here," says Donald Dutkowsky, professor emeritus of economics. "Employers who want to get back to where it was before the pandemic and a workforce who is rethinking the whole idea of how much they want to work and where they want to work," he says. Read more in the CNY Central article, "Even Wegmans, one of country's best places to work, needs employees."

Maxwell School Announces New Chairs, Faculty

The Maxwell School welcomes several new faculty members and announces the appointment of four department chairs.

Engelhardt quoted in HousingWire article on pandemic, housing payments

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Research Institute for Housing America, fewer households missed rent and mortgage payments in the second quarter of 2021. "The recent rise in COVID-19 cases, and elevated inflationary pressures, could slow economic growth and hiring. These potential headwinds could also impact households still facing hardships," says Professor Gary Engelhardt. "Given the level of government support during the pandemic and the more recent improvements in the economy and labor market, it is quite possible that the observed levels of rental non-payments may be at or close to pre-pandemic levels." Read more in the HousingWire article, "More households paid their rent and mortgage in Q2 2021."

Compassion for Community - Lia Chabot '21 BS (Econ/CCE)

Lia Chabot ’21 arrived at Syracuse University with a passion for economics, and she’ll graduate with a wealth of experiences that reflect her academic prowess, compassion and commitment to activism. Whether she’s talking monetary policy, crunching data on rental properties, advocating for sexual safety or sharing her love for London, Chabot brings a refreshing perspective to all she does. In the College of Arts and Sciences and the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, she brought her interests together by combining majors in economics and citizenship and civic engagement with a minor in environment and society.

Flores-Lagunes comments on Northeast labor gains in Business Insider

As more people get their COVID shots, economies in the Northeast, which has some of the highest vaccination rates in the country, are reopening, prompting both customers to flock to restaurants and other businesses and workers to return to jobs. Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, professor of economics, says that "people are feeling more comfortable going to restaurants, traveling, and right now in the Northeast, it's a good time to travel because it's not as cold." He was quoted in the Business Insider article, "Hospitality workers are returning to their jobs in Northeast states, prompting big unemployment drops - and economists say the region's high vaccine rate is driving it."

Lovely talks to Bloomberg about Beijing relations with Europe, US

Mary Lovely, professor of economics, discussed Beijing relations with Europe and the U.S. on 'Bloomberg Markets: China Open.' "I think that they [Europe] can have a very important role to play in lowering the temperature and starting to set the stage for us to find solutions and a way forward," Lovely says.

Schwartz quoted in EdSurge article on challenges of student mobility

In Chelsea, Massachusetts, high student mobility used to be a challenge without a clear solution. But then the district formed the Five District Partnership to develop curriculum in tandem and make moving a bit easier. There’s new interest in the model as schools and communities suddenly face big changes in enrollment as a result of the pandemic. "It’s not like kids are moving from Boston to Chicago to LA and then back again,” says Amy Ellen Schwartz, Daniel Patrick Moynihan Chair in Public Affairs. "Kids for whom housing instability is a problem, many of them are moving around in the same urban area." Read more in the EdSurge article, "School Is Hard for Mobile Students. These Districts Want to Help."

Lovely discusses India's COVID crisis, US textile imports with NBC

As the coronavirus pandemic tears across India, forcing garment factories to shut down or work at half capacity to stem new cases, retail suppliers are scrambling to move production to China. While India constitutes a smaller fraction of imports as compared to China, it still plays a significant role in certain sectors which makes it difficult to move supply chains outside the country, says Professor Mary Lovely. "If India dropped off the face of the world, where you would notice an impact is certainly in manufactured goods, textile and mill products and things like cloth and towels," she says. "You don't just move supply chains. They’re not like pins on a map." Read more in the NBC News article, "India's COVID crisis has ripple effects for garment industry worldwide."

Flores-Lagunes discusses open jobs, unemployment on Syracuse.com

At a time of high unemployment, CNY businesses are having trouble finding workers to take their low-wage jobs. That’s because an additional $300 a week in unemployment benefits means people who made minimum wage when working earn the equivalent of $15 an hour for sitting at home. “Workers have a little more power for a change,” says Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, professor of economics. Flores-Lagunes says he does not think the unemployment benefits are the only factor keeping people out of the workforce. But, he says, they are making it easier for people on the margin to stay home or to come back to work at a slower pace. Read more in the Syracuse.com article, "An epidemic of open jobs and the unemployed in CNY; for many, work doesn’t work anymore."

Dutkowsky talks to CNY Central about getting people back to work

Employers are struggling to find employees and many say the current unemployment benefits are to blame. Due to the pandemic, the federal government is giving an extra $300 a week in addition to the normal unemployment benefits. Professor Emeritus Don Dutkowsky says, “I want to see what happens in August and September when the unemployment benefits go off because you will see people looking for and accepting jobs.” Dutkowsky was interviewed for the CNY Central story, "CNY economic experts weigh in on the ways to bring people back to the workforce."

Maxwell faculty, staff and students honored with 2021 One University awards

Syracuse University announced its 2021 One University Awards, honoring members of the University community for their scholarship, teaching, academic achievement, leadership and service. The ceremony was held virtually this year due to COVID-19 precautions.

Yinger quoted in Daily Beast article on diverse communities

It's been shown that diverse communities have innumerable benefits for all their residents, yet communities remain segregated. There are long-lasting ramifications from historic and present-day housing discrimination, which is evidenced by a substantial racial homeownership gap. "Our past has a long legacy. The federal government discriminated in the provision of mortgages, in the placement of housing, and we still have that legacy with us," says John Yinger, Trustee Professor of Economics and Public Administration and International Affairs. He was quoted in the Daily Beast article, "Benefits for All: Why Diverse Communities are the Way Forward, For Everyone."

Lovely quoted in Axios piece on how companies handle controversies

Following Georgia's approval of new voter restrictions last week, a number of voices are calling for a boycott of state businesses. Companies may feel more pressure to speak out about controversies than in the past but it's not always a cut and dry win if they do. "Companies are really in the crosshairs...with the potential of losing access to the consumer market," says Professor Mary Lovely. She was quoted in the Axios article, "Companies face purpose paralysis."

Six Maxwell students receive prestigious Critical Language Scholarship

The Critical Language Scholarship (CLS) Program is an intensive overseas language and cultural immersion program for American graduate and undergraduate students enrolled in U.S. colleges and universities. Traditionally, some 550 students spend eight to 10 weeks abroad studying one of 15 languages—Arabic, Azerbaijani, Bangla, Chinese, Hindi, Indonesian, Japanese, Korean, Persian, Portuguese, Punjabi, Russian, Swahili, Turkish or Urdu. The program is fully funded and includes intensive language instruction and structured cultural enrichment experiences designed to promote rapid language gains.

Three Maxwell students named 2021 Syracuse University Scholars

Maxwell students Katelyn Bajorek, Patrick Linehan and Simran Mirchandani are among the twelve seniors that have been named as the 2021 Syracuse University Scholars, the highest undergraduate honor the University bestows.

Lovely quoted in Reuters article on Biden's nominee for US trade rep

Katherine Tai, President Joe Biden’s nominee for U.S. Trade Representative, won unanimous support in a U.S. Senate procedural vote on Tuesday and appeared set for confirmation. "The 98-0 vote in favor does, I believe, show her views are in line with many senators on trade," say Professor Mary Lovely. She adds that Tai has satisfied pro-labor lawmakers by playing an important role in negotiating stronger labor provisions in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement and has satisfied China hawks by vowing to hold Beijing to its promises. Read more in the Reuters article, "Biden trade nominee Tai wins unanimous U.S. Senate backing in procedural vote."

Lovely speaks to SCMP about the EU's new trade policy

Last week, the European Union unveiled a new foreign trade policy that signals greater cooperation with Washington and warns of unspecified measures it reserves the right to take against China to blunt "negative spillovers" from the approach Beijing takes to trade and investment. "The new EU trade policy tries to strike a principled balance between the U.S. and China, with clear signals to both that it will set its own course," says Professor Mary Lovely. "Finding a way forward that is both 'open' and 'autonomous' will be difficult, however, as openness brings interdependence," she says. Read more in the South China Morning Post article, "European Union unveils new trade policy, warns of measures to blunt 'negative spillovers' from China."

Lovely discusses resilience of US supply chains on Brookings podcast

Global trade may not dominate the news in the early days of Joe Biden’s presidency, but it does factor into many of the challenges the United States is currently facing. Professor Mary Lovely was a guest on the Brookings Institution podcast "Dollar & Sense" to discuss the resilience of U.S. supply chains, the potential effects of Biden’s "Buy American" policy, U.S. engagement with China, and other early lessons from the Biden administration’s emerging trade agenda.

Rosenthal cited in Financial Post article on commercial real estate

A recent paper co-authored by Professor Stuart Rosenthal, was cited in the Financial Post article, "Why the automobile has become a kingmaker for downtown commercial real estate." The authors' empirical analysis of 56,765 commercial leases signed between January 2019 and October 2020 across 109 urban centers in the United States revealed that commercial real estate in the urban core, especially in cities where public transit accounts for a sizable share of work trips, has indeed lost value.

Liu examines how firm integration decisions are made in new study

"The missing option in firm boundary decisions," authored by Assistant Professor of Economics Mengxiao Liu, was published in European Economic Review. Liu argues that both the integrating firm and the integrated firm matter in integration decisions. She proposes a method to incorporate both firms into the integration decision and finds support for this method in a novel dataset.

Lovely discusses Biden's approach to trade in Associated Press article

For Now, the Biden administration seems intent on approaching trade with caution and deliberation. Instead, the administration’s policymakers are focusing on other, unrelated priorities, such as the pandemic. "He is going to take his time," says Professor Mary Lovely. "Biden has said repeatedly that he needs America to be stronger before he takes on a lot of these trade issues.’" Read more in the Associated Press article, "Biden treads carefully around Trump's combative trade policy."

Baltagi celebrated in special issue of Empirical Economics journal

Empirical Economics published a special issue to celebrate Distinguished Professor of Economics Badi Baltagi’s myriad contributions to the field of econometrics, as well as his long service to the journal. The influential work carried out by Baltagi during the past four decades or so is recognized in the issue by nineteen peer-reviewed, state-of-the-art articles, written by some of the leading researchers in econometrics. The diversity of the topics covered in "Essays in honor of Professor Badi H. Baltagi" constitutes a testament to the wide-ranging scope of Baltagi's research interests and contributions.

Lovely quoted in Politico article on impact of Trump's trade policy

"The Trump administration never had a feasible plan for reducing the trade deficit," explains Professor Mary Lovely. "Their 2017 tax cut ensured that the U.S. as a whole would continue to spend more than it produced, hence the need for a current account deficit. The tariffs on China reduced imports from China, but these were mostly replaced with imports from other sources." Read more in the Politico article, "America’s trade gap soared under Trump, final figures show."

Schwartz discusses her recent special ed study with Hechinger Report

"They’re closing the gap with their general education peers by about a sixth," says Professor Amy Ellen Schwartz, Daniel Patrick Moynihan Chair in Public Affairs and lead author of the recently published study, "The Effects of Special Education on the Academic Performance of Students with Learning Disabilities." "Their performance [in special ed] jumps up compared to other peers with learning disabilities who are not yet diagnosed" and still part of the general education population, she says. Read more in the Hechinger Report article, "PROOF POINTS: New answers to old questions about special education."

Lovely weighs in on Trump's failed trade war with China in Bloomberg

"China is too big and too important to the world economy to think that you can cut it out like a paper doll," says Professor Mary Lovely. "The Trump administration had a wake-up call." Read more in the Bloomberg article, "How China Won Trump’s Trade War and Got Americans to Foot the Bill."

Lovely talks to Marketplace about Capitol riot, foreign investors

Professor Mary Lovely sees the nation in uncharted territory and is focused on the question of how much uncertainty was added into the system Wednesday. "In the world of research on foreign direct investment, we know that foreign investors like certainty," Lovely explains. "So, for example, even though China’s an authoritarian state, we see lots of foreign investment flowing into China. Investment flows to democracies and non-democracies as well." Lovely was interviewed for the Marketplace article, "Will the riot in Washington deter foreign investment in the U.S.?"

Lovely predicts what 2021 will bring for China in Politico

"China pushed the boundaries of acceptable international behavior during the Trump years, exploiting the absence of consistent American leadership," says Professor Mary Lovely. "With a new administration committed to rebuilding alliances taking the reins in Washington, China will pause its more aggressive actions in a bid to stave off broader export controls," she says. Lovely was quoted in the Politico article, "China 2021: Experts make their one big prediction."

Lovely talks to WSJ, Yahoo! about future of US buying practices, trade

Professor Mary Lovely spoke with several media outlets about the US-China trade landscape for 2021, the future of tariffs and the impact of President-elect Biden's buy America pledge. "The most important thing right now is to repair our relationship with the European Union, Japan, and other allies," Lovely told Yahoo! Finance. "I think it would be wise for the Biden administration to work with allies. And then to work through negotiations with China on how these tariffs might be rolled back."

Liu study on multi-function products, firm scope/boundaries published

"What’s the big idea? Multi-function products, firm scope and firm boundaries," co-authored by Assistant Professor of Economics Mengxiao Liu, was published in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. The authors examine the implications that flow from the fact that some firms are so much better than others at the Big Idea, that is, at identifying and bundling clusters of functions. The authors also look at how firms decide whether to outsource functions or produce them in-house given the holdup problems associated with bringing ideas to market and coordinating multiple suppliers.

Schwartz discusses challenges of post-COVID school mobility in The 74

"The literature says, 'These [mobile] kids do worse,'" says Amy Ellen Schwartz, Daniel Patrick Moynihan Chair in Public Affairs. "But really, on the whole, we’re unable to fully disentangle the effects of moving from the underlying factors that led to it. And from a policy point of view, I’m not sure it matters: You show me a kid who’s moved three times in the last eight months, I’ll show you a kid who needs special attention," she says. Read more in The 74 article, "Research Shows Changing Schools Can Make or Break a Student, But the Wave of Post-COVID Mobility May Challenge the Systems in Ways We’ve Never Seen."

Alumna Kristen Patel named Gregg Professor of Practice at Maxwell

Kristen (Kris) Patel, a distinguished alumna of the Maxwell School (’90 Econ, PSt) with more than 25 years of experience leading intelligence and analytics programs in the public and private sectors, is the new Donald P. and Margaret Curry Gregg Professor of Practice in Korean and East Asian Affairs. In her new role, Patel will serve as faculty member in the Policy Studies Program and teach undergraduate courses in policy studies and graduate courses in public administration and international affairs. Patel will be a research associate in Maxwell’s PARCC and contribute to Syracuse University’s Intelligence Center Community of Academic Excellence.

Lovely talks to Agweek about Biden's approach on trade issues

"We know to expect, clearly from his history, that President-elect Biden will work more closely with Western allies and use international institutions to promote new global initiatives," says Professor Mary Lovely. "This is, of course, realizing that his first-year focus is going to have to be on the domestic agenda, in particular getting the COVID-19 outbreak under control and reviving the U.S. economy," she says. Read more in the Agweek article, "Biden expected to approach trade differently than Trump."

Lovely discusses US-China trade under Biden in Iowa Capital Dispatch

Professor Mary Lovely says concessions would be key to returning U.S.-Chinese relations to normal. "If there’s going to be some type of rapprochement with China on this, there’s going to have to be negotiations before that between the Chinese and the Americans that deescalate the conflict and result in some other wins from both sides," she says. Read more in the Iowa Capital Dispatch article, "Farmers likely to see more multinational trade deals crafted in Biden administration."

Lovely quoted in New York Times article on the RCEP

"RCEP [Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership] gives foreign companies enhanced flexibility in navigating between the two giants," says Professor Mary Lovely. "Lower tariffs within the region increases the value of operating within the Asian region, while the uniform rules of origin make it easier to pull production away from the Chinese mainland while retaining that access." Read more in the New York Times article, "China-Led Trade Pact Is Signed, in Challenge to U.S."

Lovely discusses US trade ties with Asia-Pacific nations in Bloomberg

"The choice for Biden is clear," says Mary Lovely, professor of economics. "Return the U.S. to the Trans-Pacific Partnership to ensure access for U.S. companies." She was quoted in the Bloomberg article, "China-Anchored Free-Trade Zone, World’s Biggest, Nearly Done."

Flores-Lagunes comments on October jobs report in MarketWatch

A stronger than expected October jobs report showed declining national jobless rates, and unemployment declines across all major worker demographics. According to Professor Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, improving jobs numbers may have "some explanatory power for the good showing by the president on election night." But there could be other factors too, like the campaign’s outreach efforts. "Just to be sure to make clear, we are nowhere out of the woods in this pandemic-induced recession," he adds. Read more in the MarketWatch article, "October jobs report suggests why some Black and Latino voters voted for Trump."

Flores-Lagunes quoted in WSJ article on US unemployment

"As these last few weeks have shown us, the pandemic is not over," says Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, professor of economics. He says the recent surge in COVID-19 cases could lead to another round of business closures and job losses, potentially unwinding a portion of the labor market’s summer rebound. And until a vaccine becomes widely available, Flores-Lagunes says, weaker consumer demand will continue to weigh on the recovery. "Going back to normal in terms of economic activity really depends on getting the virus under control," he says. Read more in the Wall Street Journal article, "U.S. Unemployment Claims Held Nearly Steady Last Week."

Lovely comments on auto trade under Biden presidency in CNBC article

"On automotive trade, I don’t think you’re going to see Biden making much of a move," says Professor Mary Lovely. "There’s no way, especially with the labor support Biden has, he’s going to change that." Read more in the CNBC article, "What a Trump or Biden win for president means for U.S. automakers." Lovely was also quoted in the Law360 article, "'Made In America' 2020 Tax Policies Short On Details."

Lovely speaks to SCMP about the future of trade, CPTPP

Trump’s vision of a "Fortress America," where US manufacturers produce everything they need domestically, is unrealistic, says Professor Mary Lovely. "The Trumpers have this idea that we‘re going to bring supply chains back home, and that is not going to happen, so where are we going?" Lovely says, "if we want to reduce our dependence on China, the only other game in town, besides the USMCA [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement], is CPTPP [Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership]." Read more in the South China Morning Post article, "Could a win for Joe Biden see the US re-engaging on global trade?"

Engelhardt discusses housing-related financial distress in USA Today

"With the current eviction moratorium expiring in January, the situation could be even more challenging for renters," says Gary Engelhardt, professor of economics. "Many renter households across the country could find themselves with no place to live and no means to repay missed payments." Engelhardt was quoted in the USA Today article, "More than 6M households missed their rent or mortgage payment in September."

Lovely speaks to BNN Bloomberg, Politico about Trump's use of tariffs

"Short-term fixes like tariffs don’t work," Professor Mary Lovely, tells Politico. "It’s magical thinking." The large U.S. trade deficit is fundamentally driven by larger economic factors — like the fact Americans spend more than they save and have to borrow from abroad to finance the difference, she says. Lovely also spoke to BNN Bloomberg about Trump's use of tariffs.

Singleton study on labor unions, workplace safety published

"Labor Unions and Workplace Safety," co-authored by Associate Professor of Economics Perry Singleton, Ling Li '17 MA (Econ)/'18 PhD (Econ), and Shawn Rohlin '06 MA (Econ)/'09 PhD (Econ), was published in the IRL Review. The study findings indicate that unionization had no detectable effect on accident case rates at the mean, but shifted downward the case-rate distribution below 2 cases per 100 full-time equivalent workers annually. The downward shift is most evident among larger bargaining units and manufacturing establishments

Lovely quoted in Washington Times article on Trump, Biden and trade

"I would just say an important difference between Biden and Trump, when the smoke clears, is that Biden wants to work with the allies," says Professor Mary Lovely. She was quoted in the Washington Times article, "Trump bets on trade issues as Biden struggles to find footing."

Shifa paper on trade in high-skilled human capital published

"Trade in Human Capital: A Quantitative Theory of Economic Growth and the Import of Higher Education," written by Assistant Professor of Economics Abdulaziz Shifa, was published in Macroeconomic Dynamics. Shifa presents a stylized quantitative model of trade in high-skilled human capital, in which colleges in a developing country can hire high quality teachers from a developed country. In the model, the use of foreign teachers is proposed as a possible mechanism to build domestic capacity for advanced education.

Lovely comments on US-China tech war in Axios article

The torrent of anti-Chinese rhetoric by the Trump administration recently has been countered by much softer actions, as the administration attempts to "thread the needle" of looking tough heading into the election while having the Chinese continue to purchase U.S. goods, says Professor Mary Lovely. "The tech issue is the big one … for the long term, but for the election it’s not at all clear to me that the tech issue is the big one," she says. Read more in the Axios article, "The tech war between the U.S. and China escalates."

Engelhardt cited in TRD article on COVID's impact on housing costs

Professor Gary Engelhardt notes that a new federal stimulus package would be essential to help prevent more households, particularly renters, from running into difficulties paying their housing costs. "Particularly for renters, the combination of those who missed a payment — or were offered and did not take it — is substantive enough to suggest real risk to their ability to make upcoming payments," says Engelhardt. He was quoted in the Real Deal article, "Landlords lost about $9B in rental payments last quarter: report."

Study by Ali, Shifa on colonial power, corruption in Africa published

"European colonization and the corruption of local elites: The case of chiefs in Africa," co-authored by Merima Ali and Abdulaziz Shifa, both assistant professors of economics, was published in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. Using microdata from nationally representative surveys in anglophone and francophone countries in Africa, Ali and Shifa found that corruption among anglophone chiefs is significantly higher than that of francophone chiefs. They also found that anglophone chiefs command a significantly lower level of public trust.

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