South Asia Center presents: Dimitar Gueorguiev - Turning Out in India: Testing the Anti-Incumbency Hypothesis

South Asia Center presents: Dimitar Gueorguiev - Turning Out in India: Testing the Anti-Incumbency Hypothesis

Dimitar Gueorguiev, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Syracuse University

Studies of congressional elections in the United States suggest that high voter turnout is usually a bad sign for incumbents. In this study, Gueorguiev examines the pattern on parliamentary elections in India where staggered election schedules allow us to disentangle turnout from election outcomes. Taking advantage of election timing across different states he shows that high turnout significantly reduces the likelihood that an incumbent candidate is elected and that this effect is more pronounced in elections occurring later in the election schedule. 

Sponsored by the South Asia Center at the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs