Lincoln and Eggers

Forecasting Crises And Societal Threats

FORECAST (Forecasting Crises And Societal Threats), is an interdisciplinary research project housed at the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs in collaboration with the L.C. Smith College of Engineering and Computer Science at Syracuse University. Expanding upon the literature of leadership analysis, decision-making, and crisis management, this project attempts to bridge the methodological and theoretical space between information management and subject matter expertise in the analysis of modern political crises. Most models of political governance and crisis focus primarily on structural variables, lacking flexibility when considering the central role of human agency in crises. However, this project contends that the political leadership of a nation frames crises, and during these crises a contraction of authority occurs that allows the leadership structure to mobilize national resources to combat the crisis. Therefore, leadership traits such as “conceptual complexity” or “sensitivity to information” have a significant impact on how the leadership body recognizes, interprets, and manages a crisis.