Maxwell School News

"If the public is fundamentally dissatisfied with where the country is going, that is also going to open up opportunities for different political messages—and different political messengers—to tap that dissatisfaction in different ways," says Grant Reeher, professor of political science and director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute.

While military deployment to the border by President Trump is "clearly legal," Professor of Practice William Banks questions "whether the wall construction itself is lawful."

"If Democrats are taking more precautions because of the coronavirus, we may see them not turn out as much as they would have without the pandemic," says Shana Gadarian, associate professor of political science.

"At this point, it is just completely baffling to me,” says Grant Reeher, professor of political science, of President Trump's decision to hold his campaign rally in Tulsa, the site of one of the worst racial massacres in modern U.S. history back in 1921. "He is going all-in on ‘Law and Order’ and rejecting the very premise of the protests and sticking it in your eye."

When asked how hard it would be for any incumbent to overcome low voter satisfaction figures, Professor of Political Science Grant Reeher says, "If we’re going by the history, the answer is 'very difficult.'" He claims that voter satisfaction has always been a key indicator of the incumbent party's likelihood of winning reelection.

Grant Reeher, professor of political science, says Biden could have a hard time getting enthusiastic support from former Sanders supporters due to his lengthy record—three decades of Senate votes and two terms in the White House as President Barack Obama's vice president.

"As disturbing as these allegations against Vice President Biden are, similar allegations have been made against President Trump... I think [voting for Biden is] a legitimate choice to make that does not negate the possibility that Tara Reade is telling the truth," says Margaret Susan Thompson, associate professor of history and political science.

"I don’t think the issue is likely to cause someone to vote for Trump instead of Biden," says Grant Reeher, professor of political science. "The problem is what it does for the level of enthusiasm for Biden among different constituencies, and the turnout for him. It could have a dampening effect there."

"This campaign is going to be about how people think and feel about how the government has responded to this crisis [COVID-19]," says Grant Reeher, professor of political science and director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute.

David Popp was interviewed for the S&P Global story, "Biden, Sanders eye broader EV adoption on road to 2020 election," stating that he is "highly skeptical" of reaching 100% EV sales by 2030.

Shana Gadarian, associate professor of political science, says that it’s still early to declare an official front-runner in the Democratic presidential primary.

A single piece of information rarely changes anyone’s opinion, "whether it’s true-or false," says Emily Thorson, assistant professor of political science, "That’s a good thing." The idea that a handful of unreliable outlets were going to substantially alter views or behaviors "is pretty far-fetched, given what we know about the stability of people’s political attitudes," she adds.

"I think it is fair to say that the tax increase—assuming it is as big as Senator Sanders projects—is about as large as the [13-point] tax increases enacted to finance World War II," as measured as a share of GDP, says Leonard Burman, Paul Volcker Chair in Behavioral Economics.

Professor of Political Science Grant Reeher likens the 2020 Democratic primary to the 2016 GOP primary when several rivals of then-candidate Donald Trump kept their campaigns alive for as long as possible in hopes of stopping the eventual nominee's rise.

"The general phenomenon is one where primary voters are wanting to make decisions among the candidates that are the viable ones. They want to be choosing among those who have a chance," says Grant Reeher, professor of political science and director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute.

"One of the main lenses to look at political contributions is as investments. That often leads to big investors hedging their bets, which they often do," says Professor Grant Reeher. He was interviewed for the Modern Healthcare article, about healthcare executives and the political consequences of their campaign donations

Grant Reeher, professor of political science and director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute, says that Senator Warren and Senator Sanders "are struggling for the same general bloc of Democratic voters, and Biden is offering an alternative to both of them—so it’s not like someone might abandon Sanders because of this conflict and then go to Biden." 

"The most important threat, in my view, of another Trump presidency is the unpredictability and uncertainty," says Áron Tóbiás, assistant professor of economics. "You can never know what happens next: what appears on Twitter, or what kind of trade policy is made."