Maxwell School News

"I think Putin emerges from this significantly weakened," says Brian Taylor, professor of political science. "I think if you're a member of the Russian elite or are in fact a member of the Russian population, you're going to look at this and think, 'Wow, a private army just drove on Moscow for most of the day. No one stopped them and they're allowed to leave and no real consequences.'"

"He’s [Prigozhin] clearly trying to draw a sharp contrast between his presence directly on the battlefield, his engagement with his soldiers, and the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, which he frequently attacks as being out of touch elitists who are damaging the war effort," says Brian Taylor, professor of political science.

The visibility of losing their flagship for an entire fleet inevitably attracted attention, says retired Vice Admiral Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs. It proved that any and all Russian vessels approaching Ukraine's littoral waters were under threat, he adds.

“Wagner was a very useful stopgap in that period between when [Russia] had so many of their regular forces attrited and Putin came around to the realization that he had no choice but to bring in hundreds of thousands of more people. That may, in some sense, prove to be that Wagner is at its sort of height of influence,” says Brian Taylor, professor of political science.

"Most of the old guard have sought to remain in places like Mali, or in Africa, away from the Ukraine fight, because the guys I talked to before the invasion were not supportive of the invasion," says Sean McFate, adjunct professor in Maxwell's Washington programs.

"Putin’s War of Recolonization," co-authored by Maxwell professors Renée de Nevers and Brian Taylor, was published in the Journal of Democracy.

The Moscow summit has the effect of underscoring and reinforcing the status of “Russia as a junior partner with China—economically, militarily and diplomatically,” Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, tells the Associated Press.

"There's an ongoing public split between Wagner and the Russian military, and both sides are looking for symbolic wins," says Sean McFate, adjunct professor in Maxwell's Washington programs.

"Putin has always known that NATO poses no credible security threat to Russia itself. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO’s force posture and the U.S. military presence in Europe have greatly declined, reducing any potential military threat to Russia. What really scares the Russian elite is the spread of democracy," argues Michael John Williams, associate professor of public administration and international affairs.

"Those who think international law can curb mercenarism are unrealistic. Even if we had solid laws (which we do not), who will go into Ukraine and arrest all those mercenaries? Not the UN or NATO. The market for force resists arrest, which is why mercenaries are the second oldest profession. Now they are back, and we must re-learn strategies to fight this unique form of warfare," writes Sean McFate, adjunct professor in Maxwell's Washington programs.

As we pass the one-year anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine, numerous factors such as the Russian military’s poor performance, Putin’s botched mobilization, mounting casualties, economic challenges resulting from sanctions and export controls, and increasingly visible elite fissures are raising questions about the political stability of the Russian regime. Brian Taylor, professor of political science, weighs in.

While Russia’s use of the yuan doesn’t mean the end of dollar supremacy, it may usher in the beginning of a more fractured system that could ultimately blunt the U.S.’s ability to use financial sanctions as a weapon, says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science.

For Brian Taylor, professor of political science, the biggest take from the one-year anniversary is Ukraine is still standing. "A year ago a lot of people might not have expected that, given Russia’s size, the size of the population, the size of its army, the size of its economy," Taylor says.

Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, says that at the strategic level, the biggest setback for Putin is "the huge casualties that the Russians have taken." 

The concentration of troops in the east of the country shows that the Russian president has not given up on his goal of enslaving Ukraine despite multiple setbacks since the launch of the invasion, says Brian Taylor, professor of political science.

"My impression is that his power and visibility have increased a lot since the start of the war in Ukraine," says Brian Taylor, professor of political science. "He's a much more public figure than a year ago, and I think that reflects his ambition. And, up to a certain point, the impression it has of its current usefulness."

"The decision of Germany to allow allies to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, as well as Berlin dispatching its own bilateral donation, is a significant symbol of allied commitment to Ukraine, but the implications of this move should not be exaggerated," says Michael Williams, associate professor of public administration and international affairs.

A paramilitary outfit is making gains for Russia in eastern Ukraine. The Wagner Group, as the militia is known, is operated by Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin. Mark Jacobson, assistant dean for Washington programs, discussed the situation with MSNBC.

"If the U.S. had not worked with our allies and provided substantial military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, we would be facing a wide range of strategic threats in Europe and elsewhere," Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, tells Newsweek.

Brian Taylor, professor of political science, tells Newsweek that Zelensky's visit is "well-timed" and intends to signal that U.S. support remains strong, despite the Republican Party soon taking control of the House.