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Trade Development and Political Economy Group Present: Supply Chain Uncertainty as a Trade Barrier

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Trade Development and Political Economy Group Present: Supply Chain Uncertainty as a Trade Barrier

Speaker: Valentina Kozlova
(Assistant Professor of Economics, SUNY - Oswego)

Authors: Don Clark, Valentina Kozlova and Georg Schaur

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of supply chain uncertainty on trade. Importers hold safety stock to hedge against delays in delivery. An increase in supply chain uncertainty raises safety stocks, increases inventory holding costs, and reduces imports from locations with high delivery time uncertainty. Supply chain uncertainty is measured using detailed data on actual and expected arrival times of vessels at U.S. ports. Delivery delays are found to significantly reduce trade volumes in the same manner as other nontariff barriers. A 10 percent increase in supply-chain uncertainty reduces imports by as much as 4.2 percent. Measuring supply chain uncertainty costs can help us assess both costs associated with shipment delays and the economic impact of policies intended to facilitate trade such as streamlined cargo screening, improved customs procedures, and investment in port infrastructure.

Short Bio: Valentina Kozlova is Assistant Professor of Economics at SUNY-Oswego. She specializes in International Trade.

Monday, October 14, 2013
4:00 pm



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