The Effect of the Great Recession on Student Loan Borrowing and Repayment

Tomas Monarrez, senior research fellow in the Consumer Finance Institute of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will present “The Effect of the Great Recession on Student Loan Borrowing and Repayment” as part of the CPR Seminar Series.

Abstract: We study the long-term effect of the Great Recession on federal student loan borrowing and repayment. Using detailed longitudinal data on federal student loan borrowers, we compare labor markets that faced varying degrees of unemployment severity during the economic downturn. On average, a one percentage point increase in Great Recession unemployment rates caused a 7% rise in total outstanding debt and 6% percent rise in defaulted borrowers. Across institutional sectors, the Great Recession accounted on average for between 19-32% of the total increase in undergraduate student debt and 10-25% of the total increase in defaults. Borrowers who were students at the onset of the recession saw the largest effects on accrued debt, due to delayed graduation and lengthened enrollment spells.