CPR Seminar Series: Celeste Carruthers, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

Celeste Carruthers, William F. Fox Distinguished Professor of Labor Economics at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville will present, “Post-COVID Labor Market Shortages and College Enrollment,” as part of the CPR Seminar Series. 

Abstract: There were 1.1 million fewer students enrolled in U.S. higher education in Fall 2022 than Fall 2019. During the same period of time, the labor market grew increasingly favorable to young workers without college. I examine the relationship between these patterns using state administrative data connecting K-12, higher education, and workforce outcomes for Tennessee 12th grade classes of 2009 - 2022. I construct labor market indicators that would have been salient to 12th grade students and representative of their local employment opportunities: Job mobility for the most recent cohort from the same school, and in some models, from the same career and technical education focal area. I find that labor tightness may have explained 28% of the fall in college going between 2019-20 and 2021-22 and 18% of the fall in 2-year college going. Estimated effects are concentrated among students with low or missing ACT scores.