Maxwell School News

“In recent decades the country has gotten incredibly polarized politically. Both candidates have 43% in the bank no matter what. I think what the last week is about—it's not about persuasion, we're done with that—it's about mobilization, it's about turnout. The election is going to turn on turnout,” says Grant Reeher, professor of political science.

“We know that Catholics are probably as divided as the rest of the electorate right now,” says Margaret Susan Thompson, associate professor of history and political science. “The election is extremely close by almost any standard and Catholics seem to be in many ways mirroring the American population in that regard,” she says.

“In some ways, you almost have two generic candidates running, one more conservative and one sort of more mainstream. And you’ve got a district that just seems more built for people who are closer to the center, in either party,” says Grant Reeher, professor of political science.

“It's really interesting that the Catholic Church is probably one of the few places where you find people with different perspectives sitting together at Sunday Mass,” says Margaret Susan Thompson, associate professor of history and political science. She adds that if past election results are any indication, Catholic turnout and the choices they make at the polls will depend on a variety of factors.

“You have two states that [we]re the same, were pretty middle-of-the-road in terms of life expectancy, but they take opposite trajectories,” says University Professor Jennifer Karas Montez. Some states, she says, took action to “invest in [the state] population’s overall economic well-being and health. And you had other states that took a...very different approach.”

Harris is “is performing better in the national polls versus the battleground states, which tells me she is racking up more support in states where she is already likely to win,” says Grant Reeher, professor of political science. “That makes sense given the nature of the campaign's central messages and appeals.”

“Since nonpartisan primaries include candidates from all parties, and many voters are entrenched in their partisan loyalties, fewer voters are susceptible to changing their votes based on persuasion efforts funded by wealthy donors” writes Richard Barton, assistant teaching professor of public administration and international affairs.

Harris reshaped the election race by “advocating for women's health, reproductive freedom and abortion access more vocally and more powerfully than Biden did and than the Trump/Vance ticket is,” says Shana Gadarian, professor of poltical science. 

“I think a lot of young people have been waiting to hear the same thing probably for the past few years as they have in the past few weeks, which is a really clear stance on what lies ahead for the folks who are most vulnerable in the United States,” says Jenn Jackson, assistant professor of political science.

Jeffrey Stonecash, Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Political Science, has written a new book, “The Transformation of the Republican Party” (Lynne Reinner, 2024), that offers a historical analysis exploring the evolution of the Republican Party. 

Playing into those politics are gasoline prices, which have become a partial barometer of economic security, says Matthew Huber, professor of geography and environment. He also notes that that the oil and gas industry has history of funding research that contradicts climate science.

“There is really a lot of interest right now in ensuring that folks who are not typically tapped into the mainstream of electoral politics, that they are getting excited about this election. …They're reaching out to folks who I believe that they think may come back into the fold with them,” says Jenn Jackson, assistant professor of political science.

Grant Reeher, professor of political science professor, says some of it “is probably being driven by the enthusiasm among the white left voters for her candidacy.”

Unlike the well-oiled machinery of the right, left-leaning partisan organizations struggle to define their message because the party itself is “so diverse in its makeup,” says Johanna Dunaway, professor of political science. “Democrats have a lot more of a big tent party,” she says. “It’s harder to have a consistent party platform and messaging.”

“Harris also has some of the traits that a lot of Democrats were looking for,” says Grant Reeher, professor of political science. “Her early performance has been good, and she's picking up some good endorsements. The money is coming in. All this has been widely reported in the press, which furthers the impression of new viability.”

“Calling Biden’s decision a ‘coup’ does not clarify anything about all of this. It does not accurately reflect any part of what has happened here,” says Matthew Cleary, associate professor of political science.

Keith Bybee, professor of political science, says 6-3 rulings such as the immunity decision make the court appear more partisan in its decision-making. “But also, this majority is quite emboldened,” he says, rendering decisions that are “quite sweeping and overturn decades-old precedents” such as in the case of abortion.

“It sounds like they are going full force into campaign mode and are trying to play up the prosecutor versus the felon, the future versus the past, so you're starting to see some themes emerge,” says Christopher Faricy, professor of political science. 

“Harris will likely reinvigorate the energy and enthusiasm behind the campaign—one can feel that already,” says Grant Reeher, professor of political science. “The early fundraising is a good sign for her.”

“The Trump organization is a family business, but once he took office the first time, and then you could really see that he brought that into the political realm and into the White House,” says Natalie Koch, professor of geography and the environment.