Shana Gadarian, professor of political science, notes that while rising temperatures may not shape vote choice directly in the United States this year, they will likely increase the salience of climate as an issue. “This will especially be the case for candidates on the left, where voters name the environment and climate as issues they care about,” she says.

Unlike the well-oiled machinery of the right, left-leaning partisan organizations struggle to define their message because the party itself is “so diverse in its makeup,” says Johanna Dunaway, professor of political science. “Democrats have a lot more of a big tent party,” she says. “It’s harder to have a consistent party platform and messaging.”

“It pretty clear and consistent across lots of polls that public support for the court itself has been tanking,” says Thomas Keck, Michael O. Sawyer Chair of Constitutional Law and Politics. “So, in theory, that creates some space for a capable political leader to speak to those concerns.”