In the News: Mary E. Lovely

"The Chinese are not going to be buying our soybeans, so almost by musical chairs our soybeans are going to Europe,” Mary Lovely, professor of economics, says about the EU's response to China's tariffs on American soybeans. 

Mary Lovely, professor of economics, says that after two rounds of retaliatory tariffs by China, U.S. ham and various other pork products now face massive tariffs—between 62 and 70 percent. "In recent weeks, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has reported zero weekly export sales of pork to China," she says. "So our exports to the country have pretty much collapsed."

Mary Lovely, professor of economics, explains why lower-income consumers, who tend to buy more goods from countries such as China, might end up feeling squeezed more than their higher-income counterparts.

"The biggest price hikes may be seen among these lower-priced products, and the effect of that will hit people toward the lower end of the income distribution more," says Professor of Economics Mary Lovely.

"What happens Friday will 'represent a fundamental retreat by the leader of the global trading system'," says Mary Lovely, professor of economics, adding, "It will be seen as a turning point."

"We’ve never seen anything like this," Mary Lovely told the Associated Press. Lovely recently spoke with multiple news outlets about the trade war between the U.S. and China.  

"Yes, we are now in a trade war," says Professor of Economics Mary Lovely. "The two sides are no longer engaged in productive talks to defuse tensions," she adds.

"Unless there’s congressional intervention, it’s hard to see where this goes," says Mary Lovely, professor emeritus of economics at the Maxwell School, about President Trump's combative trade stance.

"This divide-and-conquer strategy is not entirely unexpected, especially now that the three-way negotiating process seems to have hit a wall," says Mary Lovely, professor of economics, on President Trump's NAFTA talks.

These new tariffs will “almost surely not” cause a recession, says Mary Lovely, professor of economics. “This industry is important but it’s not that important. Costs will rise. We’ll see some job dislocation…but we will not see a recession,” she adds.

U.S. tariffs will “drive up costs for U.S.-based manufacturers and disadvantage American workers competing in global markets,” due to the additional costs they will inject into the supply chain, according to Mary Lovely, professor of economics.

"We've come to expect this type of ebb and flow in terms of the threat of levying trade protections against our trading partners from this administration," says Mary Lovely, professor of economics.

"They failed to drill down on the biggest frictions facing U.S. businesses and on those where we are most able to move the Chinese," Mary Lovely, professor of economics, says of the vague statement the U.S. and China released regarding the trade conflict.

"The proposed tariffs will hit bilateral trade in fast-growing, knowledge-based sectors the hardest," say Mary Lovely, professor of economics, and Yang Liang, a Ph.D. candidate in economics. "Rather than hitting the administration’s intended target—Chinese firms that may have unfairly obtained American technology—the proposed tariffs would actually inflict damage on U.S. high-technology sectors."

"These have morphed into levers, cudgels, whatever you want to call them," says Mary Lovely, professor of economics, about the Trump administration’s trade threats. "We’ll see what’s left in the end."

Mary Lovely, professor of economics, warns that using national security as a justification for trade measures opens the door for other countries to do the same. "This is a really slippery slope in a bazillion ways," she says. "This could be a blank check for using these kinds of tools."

Mary Lovely, professor of economics, says any negotiations to rejoin the Trans Pacific Partnership would probably drag well into next year. As a result they are unlikely to give Mr. Trump any quick political victory in farm states.