Maxwell School News and Commentary

"Putin has always known that NATO poses no credible security threat to Russia itself. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO’s force posture and the U.S. military presence in Europe have greatly declined, reducing any potential military threat to Russia. What really scares the Russian elite is the spread of democracy," argues Michael John Williams, associate professor of public administration and international affairs.

As we pass the one-year anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine, numerous factors such as the Russian military’s poor performance, Putin’s botched mobilization, mounting casualties, economic challenges resulting from sanctions and export controls, and increasingly visible elite fissures are raising questions about the political stability of the Russian regime. Brian Taylor, professor of political science, weighs in.

For Brian Taylor, professor of political science, the biggest take from the one-year anniversary is Ukraine is still standing. "A year ago a lot of people might not have expected that, given Russia’s size, the size of the population, the size of its army, the size of its economy," Taylor says.

Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, says that at the strategic level, the biggest setback for Putin is "the huge casualties that the Russians have taken." 

The concentration of troops in the east of the country shows that the Russian president has not given up on his goal of enslaving Ukraine despite multiple setbacks since the launch of the invasion, says Brian Taylor, professor of political science.

"The decision of Germany to allow allies to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, as well as Berlin dispatching its own bilateral donation, is a significant symbol of allied commitment to Ukraine, but the implications of this move should not be exaggerated," says Michael Williams, associate professor of public administration and international affairs.

DIANA [Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North-Atlantic] could prove key to facilitating interoperability and a more level playing field between the nations—in emerging tech areas and traditional ones that are rapidly evolving, says Michael Williams, associate professor of public administration and international affairs.

"People in the Balkans are trapped in ethnic grids, in a monstrous bureaucracy that doesn't work, brought to a 'status quo' that is paralyzing," says Azra Hromadžić, associate professor of anthropology. 

A paramilitary outfit is making gains for Russia in eastern Ukraine. The Wagner Group, as the militia is known, is operated by Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin. Mark Jacobson, assistant dean for Washington programs, discussed the situation with MSNBC.