Maxwell School News and Commentary

 “​​Difficult choices will be required in the days and weeks ahead as military operations continue a policy of strong deterrence without seeking widespread escalation that could harm our interests and those of our allies,” says Vice Adm. Robert Murrett (Ret.), professor of practice of public administration and international affairs.

"The ongoing attacks by the Houthi fighters in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, increased activity by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and the steady attacks on U.S. and coalition forces in Syria and Iraq represent a clear risk of escalation throughout the region," says Vice Adm. Robert Murrett (Ret.), professor of practice of public administration and international affairs.

Vice Adm. Robert Murrett (Ret.), professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, warns that the attacks in the Red Sea could easily drag on for the whole of 2024. “In the mind of the Houthi, this is all connected to what’s happening in Gaza,” says Murrett. “And the operations in Gaza could last for the rest of this calendar year.”

"Drones have been a feature of war for several decades, but today’s conflicts such as the Israel-Hamas war and the Ukraine war show how the technology is changing modern combat. Ever more powerful drones have become cheaper and easier to fabricate and deploy," writes William Banks, professor emeritus of public administration and international affairs.

"Post-conflict Gaza is more theory than fact. It is unknown how much Israel feels compelled to rebuild Gaza (after defeating Hamas). In the Israel-Hezbollah war of 2006, the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] destroyed much of Lebanon's infrastructure in the south and did not rebuild it," says Sean McFate, adjunct professor in Maxwell's Washington programs.

"The reality is a ceasefire is needed now and that's not something the United States is willing to agree to. The most the United States is willing to do is a humanitarian pause, but that's not nearly sufficient. And on this, the United States and Israel are an outlier in the international community," Osamah Khalil, professor of history, tells BBC News.

“Biden’s strong support for Israel has contributed to the heightened anger and frustration in the region. As we have seen in the protests of the last 24 hours, that anger is palpable and will only grow as long as the United States continues to block a ceasefire or even a humanitarian pause at the U.N.,” Osamah Khalil, professor of history, tells El País.

"[The response has] been very clear, very resolute, it's been unequivocal, and it's not making some of the folks in the Democratic electorate or caucus happy," says Grant Reeher, professor of political science. "The question is where it goes from here in concrete assistance, and if Israel gets engaged in some activities and we in a sense help them, it could complicate things."

It’s human nature to seek out information about additional threats in the days after an attack like the ones in Israel, so that people can avoid risk and reduce their anxiety, says Shana Gadarian, professor and chair of political science . But many of the social media posts circulating this week aren’t helpful, she says, because they don’t include a specific solution. 

As the conflict grows and rumors of involvement from groups like Hezbollah and from countries like Iraq, Iran and Egypt circulate, the question becomes "how far the conflict could escalate, both in terms of additional operations in Gaza but also the potential for it spilling over into other parts," says Vice Adm. Robert Murrett (Ret.), professor of practice of public administration and international affairs.