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Hou article on procyclical changes in state aid published in Publius

Nov 15, 2013

Local Fiscal Responses to Procyclical Changes in State Aid

Phuong Nguyen-Hoang & Yilin Hou

Publius: The Journal of Federalism, November 2013

Yilin Hou headshot

Yilin Hou


This article examines the asymmetry in local government responses to economic-cycle-based changes of state aid in a framework that distinguishes current outlay from noncurrent expenses and discretionary savings. Employing a panel dataset of Massachusetts municipalities for two economic cycles, the authors obtain three findings.

First, they do not find evidence of property-tax relief during economic booms. Second, discretionary savings may be used to cover noncurrent outlays during booms and to offset spending cuts during recessions. Finally, they find a large (asymmetric) fiscal inducement that may emerge during recessions when state aid cuts coincide with property-tax shortfalls. While these context-specific results may not be easily generalizable, they necessitate further research into the role of local discretionary savings and cash reserves in intergovernmental fiscal relations.