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Gadarian and Reeher Talk to WalletHub About the New Hampshire Primary

January 26, 2024

WalletHub

Shana Kushner Gadarian

Shana Kushner Gadarian


Grant Reeher

Grant Reeher


New Hampshire is first on the electoral docket during primary season. Like the Iowa caucuses that precede it, the New Hampshire primary routinely invites a storm of media attention both for what some criticize as “unfairly” holding the earliest position in the primary-election cycle as well as reliably forecasting the GOP and Democratic nominees—with 82% and 55% accuracy, respectively.

"Doing well in New Hampshire or doing better than expected can give campaign attention and a sense of momentum that will bring new media attention as well as donations and support from party members in states that come later in the process," says Shana Gadarian, associate dean for research and professor of political science. "So, the winners get a sense of forward motion that has less to do with New Hampshire specifically and more to do with it being the first state that sets expectations for the next stage."

"It is important to remember that these are party primary contests, not the general election," says Grant Reeher, director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute and professor of political science. "So, comparing New Hampshire's overall demographics to the national population may not be the right comparison."

Read more in the WalletHub article, "How New Hampshire Voters Resemble U.S. Demographics in 2024."


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