Taylor Discusses Russian Political Stability at CNAS Forum and in Washington Times Article
March 6, 2023
CNAS,The Washington Times
As we pass the one-year anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine, numerous factors such as the Russian military’s poor performance, Putin’s botched mobilization, mounting casualties, economic challenges resulting from sanctions and export controls, and increasingly visible elite fissures are raising questions about the political stability of the Russian regime.
One potential threat to Putin's power could come in the form of a military coup, should military leaders feel Putin is an impediment to success. Experts say that possibility is for now, remote.
“They haven’t had a successful coup in Russia since 1801. [Military leaders] tend to get involved in these leadership disputes either when the state is on the verge of collapse like during World War I and the Russian Revolution, or at the end of the Soviet Union in 1991,” says Brian Taylor, professor of political science.“
“Otherwise, they tend to be brought in by various civilian political actors, and I don’t see any clear way in which they would get involved, even despite the heavy losses they’ve taken, that would lead to something as extreme as resistance to the state,” he says.
Read more in the Washington Times article, “Putin weakens positions of rivals to secure his own power,” or listen to the full recording of the Center for a New American Security's forum.
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