Maxwell School News and Commentary

"Putin has always known that NATO poses no credible security threat to Russia itself. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO’s force posture and the U.S. military presence in Europe have greatly declined, reducing any potential military threat to Russia. What really scares the Russian elite is the spread of democracy," argues Michael John Williams, associate professor of public administration and international affairs.

"Those who think international law can curb mercenarism are unrealistic. Even if we had solid laws (which we do not), who will go into Ukraine and arrest all those mercenaries? Not the UN or NATO. The market for force resists arrest, which is why mercenaries are the second oldest profession. Now they are back, and we must re-learn strategies to fight this unique form of warfare," writes Sean McFate, adjunct professor in Maxwell's Washington programs.

As we pass the one-year anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine, numerous factors such as the Russian military’s poor performance, Putin’s botched mobilization, mounting casualties, economic challenges resulting from sanctions and export controls, and increasingly visible elite fissures are raising questions about the political stability of the Russian regime. Brian Taylor, professor of political science, weighs in.

While Russia’s use of the yuan doesn’t mean the end of dollar supremacy, it may usher in the beginning of a more fractured system that could ultimately blunt the U.S.’s ability to use financial sanctions as a weapon, says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science.

For Brian Taylor, professor of political science, the biggest take from the one-year anniversary is Ukraine is still standing. "A year ago a lot of people might not have expected that, given Russia’s size, the size of the population, the size of its army, the size of its economy," Taylor says.

Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, says that at the strategic level, the biggest setback for Putin is "the huge casualties that the Russians have taken." 

The concentration of troops in the east of the country shows that the Russian president has not given up on his goal of enslaving Ukraine despite multiple setbacks since the launch of the invasion, says Brian Taylor, professor of political science.

"My impression is that his power and visibility have increased a lot since the start of the war in Ukraine," says Brian Taylor, professor of political science. "He's a much more public figure than a year ago, and I think that reflects his ambition. And, up to a certain point, the impression it has of its current usefulness."

"The decision of Germany to allow allies to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, as well as Berlin dispatching its own bilateral donation, is a significant symbol of allied commitment to Ukraine, but the implications of this move should not be exaggerated," says Michael Williams, associate professor of public administration and international affairs.

A paramilitary outfit is making gains for Russia in eastern Ukraine. The Wagner Group, as the militia is known, is operated by Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin. Mark Jacobson, assistant dean for Washington programs, discussed the situation with MSNBC.