Maxwell School News and Commentary

"Most of the old guard have sought to remain in places like Mali, or in Africa, away from the Ukraine fight, because the guys I talked to before the invasion were not supportive of the invasion," says Sean McFate, adjunct professor in Maxwell's Washington programs.

"Putin’s War of Recolonization," co-authored by Maxwell professors Renée de Nevers and Brian Taylor, was published in the Journal of Democracy.

The Moscow summit has the effect of underscoring and reinforcing the status of “Russia as a junior partner with China—economically, militarily and diplomatically,” Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, tells the Associated Press.

"There's an ongoing public split between Wagner and the Russian military, and both sides are looking for symbolic wins," says Sean McFate, adjunct professor in Maxwell's Washington programs.

"Putin has always known that NATO poses no credible security threat to Russia itself. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO’s force posture and the U.S. military presence in Europe have greatly declined, reducing any potential military threat to Russia. What really scares the Russian elite is the spread of democracy," argues Michael John Williams, associate professor of public administration and international affairs.

"Those who think international law can curb mercenarism are unrealistic. Even if we had solid laws (which we do not), who will go into Ukraine and arrest all those mercenaries? Not the UN or NATO. The market for force resists arrest, which is why mercenaries are the second oldest profession. Now they are back, and we must re-learn strategies to fight this unique form of warfare," writes Sean McFate, adjunct professor in Maxwell's Washington programs.

As we pass the one-year anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine, numerous factors such as the Russian military’s poor performance, Putin’s botched mobilization, mounting casualties, economic challenges resulting from sanctions and export controls, and increasingly visible elite fissures are raising questions about the political stability of the Russian regime. Brian Taylor, professor of political science, weighs in.

While Russia’s use of the yuan doesn’t mean the end of dollar supremacy, it may usher in the beginning of a more fractured system that could ultimately blunt the U.S.’s ability to use financial sanctions as a weapon, says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science.

For Brian Taylor, professor of political science, the biggest take from the one-year anniversary is Ukraine is still standing. "A year ago a lot of people might not have expected that, given Russia’s size, the size of the population, the size of its army, the size of its economy," Taylor says.

Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, says that at the strategic level, the biggest setback for Putin is "the huge casualties that the Russians have taken."