Maxwell School News and Commentary

As we pass the one-year anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine, numerous factors such as the Russian military’s poor performance, Putin’s botched mobilization, mounting casualties, economic challenges resulting from sanctions and export controls, and increasingly visible elite fissures are raising questions about the political stability of the Russian regime. Brian Taylor, professor of political science, weighs in.

While Russia’s use of the yuan doesn’t mean the end of dollar supremacy, it may usher in the beginning of a more fractured system that could ultimately blunt the U.S.’s ability to use financial sanctions as a weapon, says Daniel McDowell, associate professor of political science.

For Brian Taylor, professor of political science, the biggest take from the one-year anniversary is Ukraine is still standing. "A year ago a lot of people might not have expected that, given Russia’s size, the size of the population, the size of its army, the size of its economy," Taylor says.

Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, says that at the strategic level, the biggest setback for Putin is "the huge casualties that the Russians have taken." 

The concentration of troops in the east of the country shows that the Russian president has not given up on his goal of enslaving Ukraine despite multiple setbacks since the launch of the invasion, says Brian Taylor, professor of political science.

"My impression is that his power and visibility have increased a lot since the start of the war in Ukraine," says Brian Taylor, professor of political science. "He's a much more public figure than a year ago, and I think that reflects his ambition. And, up to a certain point, the impression it has of its current usefulness."

"The decision of Germany to allow allies to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, as well as Berlin dispatching its own bilateral donation, is a significant symbol of allied commitment to Ukraine, but the implications of this move should not be exaggerated," says Michael Williams, associate professor of public administration and international affairs.

A paramilitary outfit is making gains for Russia in eastern Ukraine. The Wagner Group, as the militia is known, is operated by Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin. Mark Jacobson, assistant dean for Washington programs, discussed the situation with MSNBC.

"If the U.S. had not worked with our allies and provided substantial military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, we would be facing a wide range of strategic threats in Europe and elsewhere," Robert Murrett, professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, tells Newsweek.

Brian Taylor, professor of political science, tells Newsweek that Zelensky's visit is "well-timed" and intends to signal that U.S. support remains strong, despite the Republican Party soon taking control of the House.