Working Paper

I estimate the mortality and county-level regional economic impacts of hurricane evacuation orders using a novel instrumental variables framework.

Relative to similarly affected but non-evacuated areas, evacuated counties experience fewer deaths but lower personal income, employment, and business establishments into the second year following the storm, likely stemming from delayed returns in wealthier neighborhoods. I then develop a threshold decision rule that balances the mortality benefits against these persistent economic costs and apply this framework to orders issued from 2016–2022.

Incorporating these persistent economic costs alters policy evaluation: the largest orders generate net benefits that dwarf their costs, but the typical order does not clear the cost–benefit threshold—only about a quarter of recent evacuation orders remain justified under this framework, compared to 64 percent when evaluating mortality benefits alone.