Estévez-Abe Discusses Japan’s Parliamentary Elections With Agence France Presse and The Independent
February 9, 2026
Agence France Presse,The Independent
Japan held snap elections Sunday, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) expected to win more than the 233 seats needed for a majority in the 465-member lower house, with polls suggesting a possible two-thirds majority of 310 seats.
Takaichi has gained popularity with voters, especially young ones, since becoming leader in October, though her campaign promise to suspend an 8 percent sales tax on food for two years has concerned investors worried about funding the plan given Japan's debt burden of more than twice the size of its economy.
Her recent suggestion that Japan could intervene militarily if China sought to take Taiwan by force drew a furious response from Beijing, which summoned Tokyo's ambassador and conducted joint air drills with Russia, though the episode reportedly increased her popularity further.
“Now she doesn't have to worry about any elections until 2028, when the next upper house elections will take place,” Margarita Estévez-Abe, associate professor of political science, tells Agence France Presse. “So the best scenario for Japan is that Takaichi kind of takes a deep breath and focuses on amending the relationship with China.”
In The Independent article “Japan’s snap elections: Will Sanae Takaichi’s gamble pay off and what’s at stake on Sunday?” Estévez-Abe says a big win may mark a major shift in Japan's politics.
“It will break the political ‘conventional wisdom’ that the LDP needs the electoral cooperation of Komeito to win. The LDP will learn that right-wing populism is the correct winning strategy. Any push toward the centre will vanish from within the LDP,” says Estévez-Abe.
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