U.S.-Canada tariffs have already hurt New York's economy—cutting Canadian tourism, dairy and wine exports, and aluminum shipments through the Port of Oswego—and some businesse are holding off on investment due to uncertainty over new, potentially larger tariffs threatened by both countries.

Economists say the latest round of tariffs is relatively small, but a bigger round could kick in by January if the U.S. and Canada fail to reach an agreement, with steel, auto and energy sectors particularly at risk.

Research on Trump’s earlier rounds of tariffs shows they raise prices for consumers, says Associate Professor of Economics Ryan Monarch, although it’s difficult to pin down how much. He says U.S. businesses incur 85 cents of every dollar in tariff costs, but it’s not clear how much of that gets passed on to consumers.

“Every business has their own strategy, and it’s a lot harder to track the effects (of tariffs) into consumer prices,” he says. “What I think is fair is that it has not sort of been a catastrophe in terms of hyperinflation.”

Read more in the Syracuse.com article, “Trump’s fight with Canada has hurt NY farmers, automakers and tourism. Could it get worse?”