Now in its fifth year, the war has hurt both the Russian economy and Putin's approval ratings. Ukrainian long- and mid-range strikes have caused fuel shortages and visible damage to Moscow, leaving open the question of how Putin will respond to Ukraine's growing confidence.

“I think his strategy now is the same as it's really been from the very beginning, which is to try and figure out how to subjugate Ukraine. And that's the goal he's been after. And he's using really most of the means at his disposal to try and achieve that. If you look at his recent interviews, he does not want to concede at all that Russia is facing any serious problems,” Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs, tells War & Politics 24.

In an interview on WWL Radio, Taylor says, “I think the big development in the last half year or so is Ukraine has gotten much more effective using drones and cruise missiles to attack not only Russian logistics closer to the front, but also Russian oil refineries very far from the front lines. Yesterday they hit the largest oil refinery producing gasoline in Russia which is in Siberia. ...That is having a real effect on the Russian economy and mood of average people. But this is not leading Putin to think ‘I need to settle the war’ or anything like that.”