Property Tax Web Series

Abstract

Taxes create incentives; yet, the potency of these incentives may depend on the salience and households’ perceptions of the tax itself. We investigate this issue in the context of property taxes, exploring how accurately households perceive their property tax liabilities and what factors determine misperception. Leveraging a unique national dataset, created by linking Zillow’s ZTRAX data to internal data from the American Community Survey, we first compare survey responses for how much households think they pay in property taxes to how much they actually pay based on municipal administrative records from ZTRAX. While homeowners’ tax perceptions are not substantially biased on average, we observe significant inaccuracy and systematic bias across different household(er) characteristics, institutional settings, and across states. Given that the vast majority of studies in the property tax capitalization literature use data concentrated in one state or locality, we also explore whether variation in tax misperceptions across states can help explain the heterogeneity in property tax effects on home prices. Results from a meta-analysis show that studies conducted in states with higher property tax misperceptions are significantly less likely to find property tax policy changes are fully capitalized into home prices.

This paper was presented by Jeremy Moulton (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill) on May 19, 2023 as part of the 2022-2023 Syracuse-Chicago Webinar Series on Property Tax Administration and Design. John Yinger (Syracuse University) was the discussant for this presentation.