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Center for Policy Research

Working Paper

Urban Sprawl and Residential Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Indonesia and the Philippines

Yi Jiang, Taylor Lathrop, Alexander D. Rothenberg, and Yao Wang

C.P.R. Working Paper No. 281

January 2026

Alexander Rothenberg

Alexander Rothenberg


Portrait of a smiling person with a beard, wearing a suit jacket and white shirt.

Taylor Lathrop


Abstract

This paper studies how neighborhood density affects residential carbon emissions, using detailed data from Indonesia and the Philippines. To address simultaneity, we instrument density with soil characteristics, and to address sorting, we control for community averages of observed characteristics. Unlike cities in developed countries, we find that density is positively correlated with residential energy use. After controlling for sorting, we find a precise null relationship between density and residential carbon emissions. Our results suggest that policies to control urban sprawl may not be successful in reducing residential carbon emissions in developing country cities.

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