Maxwell School News

"I hope that the change in the rhetoric of Speaker Mike Johnson will become the first step in a rethinking of the Russian threat by American politicians," says Tetiana Hranchak, visiting assistant teaching professor in the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs.

Vice Adm. Robert Murrett (Ret.), professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, says current constraints on Ukraine's military forces come ahead of the spring fighting season and the prospect of a further push by Russia to capitalize on its momentum on the battlefield. 

"Even though there have been rumors of further resignations on the Republican side of the aisle, in part as a reaction to Donald Trump capturing the nomination, I have a hard time seeing the party voluntarily giving the majority and the speakership to the Democrats," says Grant Reeher, director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute.

“It's telling that he has trouble finding lenders willing to lend to him, but maybe not surprising given the issue in the legal case is his overstatement of property values,” says Len Burman, professor emeritus of public administration and international affairs.

“Really, we have 24 years of watching Putin build an increasingly repressive, authoritarian state. So the main purpose of elections like this in an authoritarian country is to show everyone that Putin is forever, there is no alternative to Putin, there's no point in resisting his state,” says Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs.

Trump’s return to the White House would mark a radical change from Biden’s multilateralism, says Grant Reeher, professor of political science. “[There would be] an emphasis on bilateral rather than multilateral relations, and a general reduction in American involvement in international affairs,” he says.

“Even among the Republican primary voters, there are 40% of the people in that state who preferred Haley to Trump,” says Grant Reeher, professor of political science. “So, bearing in mind that Trump is a former president, has four years of a presidential record, lost a pretty close election in 2020...there's a significant chunk of the Republican Party that is not happy with him.”

"I thought the Russian invasion two years ago would have been more successful. I thought Russia would have managed to seize and hold more territory than they did. ...That’s because Russia fought worse than I thought they would and Ukraine has fought much better," says Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs.

"We've seen moments where there are more heavy exits from Congress, and that it is like a canary in the coal mine," says Grant Reeher, professor of political science and director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute. "If I'm the speaker, I'm definitely worried."

Vice Adm. Robert Murrett (Ret.), professor of practice of public administration and international affairs, says the war has entered a new phase and predicts an “operational tactical reset” but no major battlefield movements. “I don’t expect to see any dramatic shifts in the activity by the Ukrainian army,” he says, “but the leadership remains strong. I think we’ll see evidence of that very clearly in the months ahead.” 

"He emphasizes, 'This is not your war. It is so far from you. You have other matters besides Ukraine,'" says Tetiana Hranchak, visiting assistant teaching professor. "Putin really wants to persuade the West to end the war sooner, which may indirectly indicate that his resources are running out."

 “​​Difficult choices will be required in the days and weeks ahead as military operations continue a policy of strong deterrence without seeking widespread escalation that could harm our interests and those of our allies,” says Vice Adm. Robert Murrett (Ret.), professor of practice of public administration and international affairs.

"Smoother, more refined, younger, better informed on the issues, but still aggressive on policy and willing to fight the cultural battles the Right seems to care about. Is that enough to persuade a loyal Republican voter, who is weighing that against a proven battler? Apparently not," says Grant Reeher, director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute.

Grant Reeher, professor of political science, tells Newsweek that Trump will continue to use his legal difficulties to rile up his MAGA base. However, Reeher adds that it remains to be seen if this will ultimately damage Trump's White House ambitions.

“The independents that are part of the polling…don’t like either of them. And then, of course the Democrats in the polls are not going to give Trump any positive ratings, and Republicans are not going to give Biden any positive ratings,” says Grant Reeher, professor of political science.

"Ukrainian forces have continued to mount attacks on Russian ships and port facilities in waters adjacent to Ukraine, in Crimea and beyond," says Vice Adm. Robert Murrett (Ret.), professor of practice of public administration and international affairs. Several damaging attacks on Russian Black Sea fleet bases in recent months have "provided strong incentive to Moscow to seek a safer harbor in the Abkhazia region," he says.

“As this continues over the next few weeks, you’re going to see even greater distance between the U.S. and its allies, and the U.S. and Israel increasingly isolated,” says Osamah Khalil, professor of history and chair of the International Relations Undergraduate Program.

"It's a tough balancing act," says Vice Adm. Robert Murrett (Ret.), professor of practice of public administration and international affairs. "The big issue is responding to attacks that are being done by Iranian surrogates in a measured way that has a deterrent effect but does not cause the tension that exists in the area in the conflict to expand to the next level."

“This kind of division is one we’ve seen for a very long time and so there is nothing new here. This was evident when McCarthy got the position in the first place—on the 15th vote—and that got a lot of attention,” Grant Reeher, professor of political science, tells The Hill.

"[The response has] been very clear, very resolute, it's been unequivocal, and it's not making some of the folks in the Democratic electorate or caucus happy," says Grant Reeher, professor of political science. "The question is where it goes from here in concrete assistance, and if Israel gets engaged in some activities and we in a sense help them, it could complicate things."