How Does County Industry Mix Matter for Working-Age Mortality?

Xue Zhang, Iliya Gutin, Shannon M. Monnat, and Jennifer Karas Montez

October 2025

Iliya Gutin

Shannon Monnat

Jennifer Karas Montez

Sociology Department

Center for Aging and Policy Studies

Lerner Center Population Health Research Brief Series

United States

Iliya Gutin

Shannon Monnat

Jennifer Karas Montez

Abstract

Some U.S. counties experience much higher mortality rates than others, and the structure of local economies plays a key role.

This brief summarizes findings of a study that examined how five major employment sectors—agriculture, manufacturing, mining and construction, services, and professional services—are associated with working-age mortality rates across U.S. counties from 2000 to 2022.

The authors find that the effects of local industries vary across time and cause of death. Counties with larger shares of employment in agriculture and manufacturing tend to have lower mortality rates, but their protective effects have weakened in recent years. Counties with larger shares of employment in service jobs have higher mortality rates, especially from suicide, alcohol-related causes, and heart disease.

Download brief