As the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran approaches its three-week mark, rising oil prices, energy market volatility and a 36% approval rating for Trump's handling of the conflict signal growing political risk for the president. Divisions within the MAGA movement, a high-profile resignation from Trump's National Counterterrorism Center director and skepticism about U.S. claims of battlefield success are compounding the pressure.

Grant Reeher, professor of political science, says that although much of the reaction to the conflict so far has been bifurcated along partisan lines, “I do think it’s a particular moment of danger [for Trump]. Up to now, there has been this drip-drip-drip erosion in the president’s support. This one, to me, has more of a potential to open up a floodgate.”

Reeher cites the key pitfalls as being the price of oil and its ramifications, the potential negative knock-on effects on financial markets and the possibility of the conflict expanding across the region or dragging on.

Read more in The Hill article, “The Memo: Frustrated Trump struggles against perception that he’s losing control of Iran war.”