Exports and Intergenerational Mobility

Devashish Mitra, Hoang Pham, Beyza Ural Marchand

Journal of International Economics, March 2026

Devashish Mitra

Economics Department

South Asia Center

Children, Adolescents

International Agreements

Labor

Southeast Asia

Trade

Journal of International Economics

Devashish Mitra

Abstract

Using eight rounds of the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys spanning 16 years and exploiting the U.S.-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in 2001, we investigate the impact of this large export shock on intergenerational occupational mobility.

The BTA has, on average, led to greater upward absolute occupational mobility among sons and daughters, with effects following roughly a U-shape by age for sons and an inverse-U for daughters. However, relative occupational mobility, inversely related to the gradient of the child’s occupational rank as a function of the parent’s, decreased on average as a result of the BTA, with this effect also varying across age groups.

While the BTA improved occupational mobility for an average child, children born to top-ranked parents benefited disproportionately. Also, the BTA increased human capital investment in college education across genders and vocational training for sons. Furthermore, higher individual and initial province-level human capital facilitated this mobility.